SP500 Update

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
480 2 6
- From 2080 it could have fallen but a breakout was possible.
- Eventually A breakout occurred and was magnified by some good news.
- The last "good" news was the 4 months deal in Greece which can only have short term impact.
- From here the upside is very very limited or at least can only occur in slow motion..

My position is still short through the put spread march 2000/1930.

4 weeks to go.
i think there is a risk next week flat and a small risk the rally persist to 2140 circa the 20th of March 2015.

from a feeling perspective: i feel this breakout is a fake and think the market will correct 10/12% from here no later than in 1week.

Related Ideas

Also, looking at the COT reports for the YM, commercial is the most short it's has been in 18 months (net postion), and the COT Index is up at levels where the YM is almost at a sell signal. Currently commercial is at 0, large 86.89, specs 91.35 If next weeks report comes out where commercial is at 0 with large and specs at 100, it would be a strong sell signal. ES COT Index, commercial is at 0 with large at 66.82 and specs at 80.95 A setup similar to Septembers short, would want to see specs (retail) at 100 with commercial at 0 for a sell signal. This could easily occur since many traders will be trying to buy the breakout to 2200. Net postion, commercial is as short at September 2014 highs although specs is not as long yet. Next week reports would not be surprised to see specs (retail) getting silly long at highs with commercial staying short. TY for your posts Yacine!
2130-40 looks like it could be a target for the spx. This setup off the feb 2014 long has been respecting it's projected fibs and the -1.272 from observation is in confluence with upper channel resistance.
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