SPX Update : BUY

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
The SPX is above it's 200 MA , the AK _Trend ID is once again positive , but the S1TH5.17% index remains below 65 . Since we have confirmation from 2/3 signals , we are going long.

Going long at these level may be uncomfortable, but we need to be as systematic as possible and keep our personal opinion and emotion on the side.

I will try my best to update you on the status of this trade .

P.S. I published a blog recently. There's not much on it right now but will have more content very soon .

Comment: Quick Update :

The S1TH is now above 65 % , which is the ( recommended) threshold for conservative investor to enter the market.

All three indicators are now confirming a "buy" signal .


Comment: SPY still above it's 200 MA
AK Trend ID still positive
S1TH still above 65

Trades remains open.
Trade active: Volatile month. The S&P 500 remains above the 200 MA , the S1TH is above 65 , and the AK_Market Trend indicator is still green . So , this trade remain open.

Comment: SP 500 > 200 ma
S1TH @ 64.35
AK_Trend indicator is positive

It's like Brexit never happened , trade remains open. :)
Trade active
Trade active: SP 500 > 200ma
S1TH > 65
AK_ TREND ID is positive

So this trade remains active.

Trade active: Trade is still active
Trade active: S1TH > 65 and SPX > 200 ma , Risk on , Trade is still active . Cheers
Trade closed manually: waited three days to see how the market would react to election news ( polls, FBI, etc, etc ) . The S1TH is well below 65 % and keeps going down. The SPY crossed its 200 ma today.
With the election next week, I believe it is wise to be on the sideline (for now). We opened this trade @ 2059.6 and closing it at 2087 ( ish) %1.37..not great , but not bad either.... RISK OFF




Good kid. Best strategy has to be 1) beat market, 2) deadly simple, 3) mechanical, non-human
+2 Reply
Hmmm. I thought your process is mechanical. If you use your judgement I guess your system will not work as designed.
+1 Reply
Algokid CosmicDust
you 100 % right CosmicDust... Trust me when I tell you this was a hard decision to make. It shouldn't be , as you mentioned it's a mechanical system. I don't feel to great about my latest post .... :/
CosmicDust Algokid
Thanks for the update, and good luck!
Do not want to speculate but I guess this is the "give back" time. I can hold but I will not invest new money unless SPX is able to make new all time high with a convincing breakout.
+1 Reply
Algokid CosmicDust
agree , same here. I'm simply holding to positions opened back March, let see what the market will do next month.
+1 Reply
hey Algokid, is trade still on for long for now? looks like S1TH > 65 and SP 500 still > 200 MA
Algokid bageltokki
Hi BagelTokki

As per my last update , yes , the trade is still on. SPY is still > 200 ,and S1TH is at 83.65 .
Hi, is there a track record or stats available for this system?
Algokid robingray
Hi Robin

using the SPY against the 200 ma has been a pretty successful strategy for many years. Combining it with the rules of of the S1TH, makes a even more robust strategy. I quickly coded this strategy and here are the results :

Keep in my that the S1TH has been available since 2007 , so the data for testing is a bit limited

from 01/01/2007 to present

Total return : 84.7 %

# of trades : 4

Max DD : 25 %

Avg trade time : 19 months

The rules for this strategy were simple

- buy --> if SPX is above its 10month MA ( similar to 200 ma) AND S1TH is above 55
- sell --> if SPX crosses below its 10month MA OR S1TH crosses below 55

Here's the code for the strategy

strategy("10 month + s1th strategy test", overlay=true)

s1 = security("S1TH","M",close)
ma = sma(close,10)

buy = close > ma and s1>= 65
sell = crossunder(close,ma) or crossunder(s1,55)

longCondition = buy
if (longCondition)
strategy.entry("buy", strategy.long)
strategy.close_all(when = sell)

You can see the trades on the attached chart. hope this helps