Going long at these level may be uncomfortable, but we need to be as systematic as possible and keep our personal opinion and emotion on the side.
I will try my best to update you on the status of this trade .
P.S. I published a blog recently. There's not much on it right now but will have more content very soon .
The S1TH is now above 65 % , which is the ( recommended) threshold for conservative investor to enter the market.
All three indicators are now confirming a "buy" signal .
AK Trend ID still positive
S1TH still above 65
Trades remains open.
S1TH @ 64.35
AK_Trend indicator is positive
It's like Brexit never happened , trade remains open. :)
S1TH > 65
AK_ TREND ID is positive
So this trade remains active.
With the election next week, I believe it is wise to be on the sideline (for now). We opened this trade @ 2059.6 and closing it at 2087 ( ish) %1.37..not great , but not bad either.... RISK OFF
using the SPY against the 200 ma has been a pretty successful strategy for many years. Combining it with the rules of of the S1TH, makes a even more robust strategy. I quickly coded this strategy and here are the results :
Keep in my that the S1TH has been available since 2007 , so the data for testing is a bit limited
from 01/01/2007 to present
Total return : 84.7 %
# of trades : 4
Max DD : 25 %
Avg trade time : 19 months
The rules for this strategy were simple
- buy --> if SPX is above its 10month MA ( similar to 200 ma) AND S1TH is above 55
- sell --> if SPX crosses below its 10month MA OR S1TH crosses below 55
Here's the code for the strategy
strategy("10 month + s1th strategy test", overlay=true)
s1 = security("S1TH","M",close)
ma = sma(close,10)
buy = close > ma and s1>= 65
sell = crossunder(close,ma) or crossunder(s1,55)
longCondition = buy
strategy.close_all(when = sell)
You can see the trades on the attached chart. hope this helps