After exploding from the early 2014 low around 1740, the S&P 500
has been stuck on the 1800-handle for several weeks. Is it consolidating or topping? I believe that we had an ideal opportunity to break out from this range early last week. While the 50-day SMA
has been providing good support on a closing basis since late April, the shorts may be tiring of holding their positions into this obvious level, only to have their gains wiped out in less than 24 hours. Even if this bull market is intact, a deeper consolidation (perhaps a re-test of 1740) seems be in the offing, given the struggle to break above 1900. If the uptrend from late 2012 is indeed significant, then a fast move down would be the only appropriate resolution to this pattern. Trading above 73's would be deeply concerning for my theory, as the move down from 1884's to 1859's (hypothetically) should be much faster than the rally from 59's to 84's, and we have already corrected about 9 points. The initial target on this position would be in the 1820's -- the bottom of the shaded channel.