YaKa

SPX - Don't get fooled by impressive runs

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
237 5 3

Just observation.

- So far in the last 6 months, all tops are aligned.
- The progress from top to top has been 6%, i.e. 1% per month (matching the log speed limit since April 2010.
- Each re-attack upside is faster but has so far always been retained by the same capping line.

More verticality without effect?

Scary for shorts but not healthy for longs.

In any case, it seems to me this line is likely to hold, therefore, in 6 months. SP500             should be capped at 2210.

Locally: progress should be capped at 2110 until mid January15 if there is resilience without breakout.
giankee
2 years ago
I've read some of your analysis. I couldn't help to notice your bearish bias on most of them. Yet equities continue to move higher for the same reasons they've been in a major bull market since 2009. Under normal market conditions where monetary policy by central banks all over the world doesn't dictate where equities, commodities, currencies and bonds go, I would fully agree with most of your pieces of analysis, however being bearish doesn't seem to provide returns these days. Happy holidays.
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YaKa PRO giankee
2 years ago
The guy who comes with fresh money and buys 2080 is my hero. I can't do that and yet we may be at 2200 in 6 months.
Giankee, trust me I recognise the ability of the market to go up over time but also i observe what speed tend to cap the progress.
It is not easy for sure... Past does not explain future... therefore dont get fooled what you saw.... I think it will go higher but i think there will be higher volatility... the smooth trend is probably coming to end.. there will be decent correction and rallies too.
-1 Reply
YaKa PRO giankee
2 years ago
Let me add:
We have an SP500 that is able to do 40pts many days in a row.
So moving 200pts is theoretically possible over 15days.
so for end of January: 2280 or 1880?
2280 - Proba: 1%
1880 - Proba: 20%
But most bullish environment are just pain trade... there is 40% probability to be at 2110 mid January.. another 1.5% up that is rewarding those who hold without fear.
-1 Reply
YaKa PRO giankee
2 years ago
In essence: over 6 weeks, it may climb 1.5% but the risk reward is very bad.
I can easily defend a short even I have the impression to be wrong a little bit every day for 6 weeks and I shall see 2085 after that excess.
Conversely, defending a long can quickly become a blood bath. if below 2050 this month.

Anyway: the skew between risk perception and the actual path could be the killer here. While short, i prefer to acknowledge this.
-1 Reply
Romanyse
2 years ago
The taller the more traffic you need to do to get a good percentage. more than 2000 we will have a big risk purchase. Growth potential in logranichen usloviya crisis, the Movement of 10% will be leveled to 200 basis points. That's a lot today.
When the market was at the beginning of the movement in 1200-1500 200 points was very good. Now such a strong move can be difficult to grow. Reduction in liquidity will show an additional signal for the fall.
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