This is more for my own ref but if that is of interest:
Since 2011 there has been 14 breakouts of which 5 only really brought the price meaningfully higher level without an imediate correction that allowed trading.
What i would mark as F is one where the following condition are met:
1) the rally did not last more than 2 weeks
2) the rally was limited to 3% (a bit higher when the vol is higher of course)
3) the subsequent correction brough well below the breakout out point within 6 weeks.
Conclusion: most (70%) of local new highs breakouts are within ~2% of a trad-able top with downside of 3% to 10% (mostly 4.5%).
These new tops are a good way to unlock the market and also, most of the time, illustrate the willingness of the market to go higher which it does at a later date.
Since 2011 there has been 14 breakouts of which 5 only really brought the price meaningfully higher level without an imediate correction that allowed trading.
What i would mark as F is one where the following condition are met:
1) the rally did not last more than 2 weeks
2) the rally was limited to 3% (a bit higher when the vol is higher of course)
3) the subsequent correction brough well below the breakout out point within 6 weeks.
Conclusion: most (70%) of local new highs breakouts are within ~2% of a trad-able top with downside of 3% to 10% (mostly 4.5%).
These new tops are a good way to unlock the market and also, most of the time, illustrate the willingness of the market to go higher which it does at a later date.