$SPX: Possible Scenario for Coming Days

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
55 0 1
We finally got the bounce I had been expecting following a 12345 impulse move down although I had originally thought we were seeing and ABCD

Additionally, I think firming prices today was largely technical stemming from the impulse, oversold conditions, wanting to hold the 50DMA and possible sentiment that the poor jobs report will make it difficult for the Fed to entertain further rate hikes in the near term.

Using bit and pieces of available price history, I constructed what we might look forward to in the coming days: a bearish bat . The ratios are OK but the B to D is a stretch. We might see a choppy move higher until we hit the 75 to 82 area where its likely we reverse course and resume the trend down.

Absent a recession, I don't have a good feel for where we are heading but a test of the 200 DMA @ 2013             seems reasonable. Unless there is an economic shock, I expect the move down to be fitful with typical retracements

Historically, its recessions that have really tanked markets.

In any event I think the fact that global growth is slowing, that we see weakness in the US economy and that worries over earnings is increasing, will make it very challenging to be bullish and make a case to increase exposure to US equities.

But bulls are a stubborn lot.
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