PerpetualLearner
Short

Signfificant Pullback could happen in SPX

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
419 13 10
I normally do not predict too much in future as its not always relevant for my trading strategy as I do not trade on this large time frame... however I have to post this ... Based on my analysis , I expect a significant pullback on a longer term chart...

The magnitude of pullback would be at least to the 1900-1920 level...even lower ...over the period of next 6-12 even longer ... The key level is 1900 level if it can not be held we may see a starting point of the more larger drop...

kchen2
5 months ago
Nice call, let's see how it goes.
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northwindow
5 months ago
Thank you for the heads up! Need to sell everything and 401k? :)
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PerpetualLearner PRO northwindow
5 months ago
I actually did that this morning...moving from index fund to bond... but this is a very long term prediction so it will take its own sweet time :)

I actually hope this prediction does not turn out to be correct... but hope is not a plan... however counter intuitively Gold and silver also have similar prediction on a long term (after a shorter upswing) which is very strange...

only Oil and corn can show some upside for some medium term future...
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northwindow PerpetualLearner
5 months ago
Thank you! I loaded some bond in my 401k earlier this year. IMHO I don't think a significant drop will come before the election but very likely after. I will wait for an up day to sell my stocks. Thanks again! :)
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northwindow
5 months ago
Do you still think gold and silver don't have a chance to long in the medium or long term? The part about gold and silver was removed from the post. :)) LOL
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PerpetualLearner PRO northwindow
5 months ago
This is based on my analysis on a 3 week chart (flashed at 19.20 level)which is quite rare ... not confirmed however on longer time frame ... but quite likely it will...

The critical level to watch is 16.80 if it does not act as a support we could see 14$ level

Here is what I see on chart

snapshot
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northwindow PerpetualLearner
5 months ago
Thank you so much for the update! I won't touch gold or silver in the near term. I was still wondering why you moved your 401k to bond. Do you not believe that there is some risk of December rate hike?
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PerpetualLearner PRO northwindow
5 months ago
I do not have a clue what will be the trigger and do not think any one has either...it could be the election or fed or both ....Market does not like either candidate...fed is holding their trigger finger waiting for the election to complete so that they will have some option left in case of a crisis of any sort without printing more money...also such a low inflation despite near zero rate mean that growth has been lame(do not care what is the GDP numbers)

I see the upside potential of the index is quite limited but there is much larger downside risk in next 6 - 12 months...but that does not mean than I will not trade on the upside sort term trade... but for medium and longer term I do not have full confidence on the market..
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northwindow PerpetualLearner
5 months ago
Thank you. I appreciate it. :) I moved my 401k to stable value fund instead. I'm afraid of potential upcoming rate hike. :(
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Also earlier I had posted an almost similar idea on SLV to the long side several months back that turned out pretty well...
Silver Ready for a multi month Rally
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NooBme PRO
5 months ago
Thanks for share idea..
I have question about your indicator.

can you please tell me what indicator name & settings ?

Thank You.
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Claire1212 NooBme
5 months ago
Yes,same question as NooBme, could you please tell tem? Thanks
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PerpetualLearner PRO Claire1212
5 months ago
Its a custom indicator which I created on my own..
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