I do not want to sound stupid, but we'd only know it was a reversal, when in fact it really reversed. When we see SPX breaking down the inner trendline, there will be no time to hesitate; just go short with the trend reversal. Until then, it is nothing else but guessing the top. Quite often I do top hunting myself too, but since the next trend break and reversal will not just cause a correction, but more likely a bigger collapse of the mkt, I have already started to train myself mentally to accept the following. It is really not the top we have to look (hunt) for, and to guess how overbought this mkt is, since huge divergences have been there on the charts for years now, and still pricing is becoming more and more irrational. But what is really important, to recognise in time the confirmed change of the px action and the trend, and realise the difference between that, and the patterns of the corrections previously seen in last few years.
That's correct; wrong use of terminology on my part. What I was getting at is whether or not an outside bar (increased range/volatility) for the month, especially at resistance on this time frame, carries with it a higher probability of marking a potential reversal going forward.
Thanks for your feedback.