"Man's reach extends beyond his grasp"
Following up on my post here, which looks at daily bars and is the source of the red resistance lines shown in this idea post, this post is a quick review at the broader picture's implication on our current state of affairs.
I decided to share this idea post when I came across one of my favorite types of technical analysis - cloned clones. I was reviewing the data within the blue box that I placed from roughly March 2003 to May 2007. You'll see that I specifically went from the start to end candlestick bodies in the upswing, ignoring wicks, and trying to also be accurate with the time axis. I then threw a fibonacci retracement tool on and liked how the subdivisions looked with the inner price data.
The scarier part here is that I then cloned that "box" over to the bottom of the market in 2009 (the candlestick body, again, not the wick). Not only did that clone's subdivisions line up nicely with the inner ratios and the top of the market at about 1421, but a second clone brought us up to 2121.2. Now, looking beyond the amusing numerology of this clone being exactly 700 away (1421 to 2121), the inner ratios of this clone/extension have been highly respected by the price data within it.
Let's keep in mind that, apart from the clone's placement being chosen by the bottom of the market (candlestick) in early 2009, each ratio and the size of the box/subdivided range that was placed on 2009 and later data are completely based on the price data in the 2007 bubble's upswing. Zero adjustments were made to "accommodate" price data following 2007.
Finally, there are two last pieces worth explaining. I did similar analysis on the 1990 to 2000 rally, but placed that cloned box on the start of the 2003-2007 bubble. Also, the Composite Index oscillator (which is the red indicator shown - the blue is RSI) needed a quick review as well. Taking into account the clear divergences which formed during each of the last few bubbles, I marked with purple horizontal lines the value of the oscillator at the time of the same candlesticks that I decided to end the boxes on. It seems that the (again, red) oscillator has fallen below those levels already, as of March this year, after diverging from both price and RSI. Further, the first of two support values (green horizontal lines) on the same oscillator are now being tested.
Some possible support targets have been marked with blue horizontal lines since so many of these cloned boxes/ratios seem to have formed confluence zones along the way. That being said, I still plan to do another post on time analysis, and another post on support targets for if / when the market begins the inevitable retracement.
Following up on my post here, which looks at daily bars and is the source of the red resistance lines shown in this idea post, this post is a quick review at the broader picture's implication on our current state of affairs.
I decided to share this idea post when I came across one of my favorite types of technical analysis - cloned clones. I was reviewing the data within the blue box that I placed from roughly March 2003 to May 2007. You'll see that I specifically went from the start to end candlestick bodies in the upswing, ignoring wicks, and trying to also be accurate with the time axis. I then threw a fibonacci retracement tool on and liked how the subdivisions looked with the inner price data.
The scarier part here is that I then cloned that "box" over to the bottom of the market in 2009 (the candlestick body, again, not the wick). Not only did that clone's subdivisions line up nicely with the inner ratios and the top of the market at about 1421, but a second clone brought us up to 2121.2. Now, looking beyond the amusing numerology of this clone being exactly 700 away (1421 to 2121), the inner ratios of this clone/extension have been highly respected by the price data within it.
Let's keep in mind that, apart from the clone's placement being chosen by the bottom of the market (candlestick) in early 2009, each ratio and the size of the box/subdivided range that was placed on 2009 and later data are completely based on the price data in the 2007 bubble's upswing. Zero adjustments were made to "accommodate" price data following 2007.
Finally, there are two last pieces worth explaining. I did similar analysis on the 1990 to 2000 rally, but placed that cloned box on the start of the 2003-2007 bubble. Also, the Composite Index oscillator (which is the red indicator shown - the blue is RSI) needed a quick review as well. Taking into account the clear divergences which formed during each of the last few bubbles, I marked with purple horizontal lines the value of the oscillator at the time of the same candlesticks that I decided to end the boxes on. It seems that the (again, red) oscillator has fallen below those levels already, as of March this year, after diverging from both price and RSI. Further, the first of two support values (green horizontal lines) on the same oscillator are now being tested.
Some possible support targets have been marked with blue horizontal lines since so many of these cloned boxes/ratios seem to have formed confluence zones along the way. That being said, I still plan to do another post on time analysis, and another post on support targets for if / when the market begins the inevitable retracement.
