BC
Short

Possible SPX cyclical top.

BC  
FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
220 4 1
A weekly TD             sell signal confirmed the week of Dec             13, 2013, setting up a 3- or 5-wave             decline to test TDST supports/stops around the 200 DMA and 1398/1329 in the next 7-8 to 13 to 21 weeks. If so, the optimal seasonal/cyclical short would occur on a rally back to the 50 DMA with volume and breadth non-confirmation and a bearish MACD divergence.
burton
3 years ago
Please add the 9-13 Counts showing the top for the TD Sequential.... but markets rose above the top now so what are the Counts showing?
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BC burton
3 years ago
It's too much work to add the TD count. :-) However, the HFT algobots took out the weekly TD stop, of course, and now they are testing the critical monthly TD stop at 1835. If Dec closes above 1835, the EW and TD projections are the upper 1900s to 2000 in 2014.

The SPX is up 50-60% since 2011, a period during which revenues and earnings have been relatively flat, with real reported earnings having contracted along the way. The only two times in the history of the SPX (and Composite) going back to the 1870s (Shiller's data) during which a similar phenomenon occurred were the periods 1927-29 and 1986-87. The melt-up we have witnessed since 2011-12 (Sornette's log-period super-exponential bubble blow-off) is one for the history books, or it requires rewriting the history books.
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burton
3 years ago
Thanks for your reply. Maybe you could check your charting configuration settings again, because all platforms I know automatically show TD Counts, so it shouldnt need be additional work. Anyway, if it's not possible automatically then leave it, just a wise tip that would help understanding it clearer. Merry X-mas :)
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BC burton
3 years ago
Are you referring to Tradingview having a DeMark feature? If so, I can't find it for the free version. I don't use the Pro version.

There are now so many converging cyclical, secular, sentiment, EW, TD, valuation, and breadth indicators screaming a top of some degree I have lost count. I have been following and trading the markets since Aug 1984, and the convergence of signals is rivaled only by 1929, 1937, 1973, 1987, 2000, 2007, and the Nikkei in 1989-90 and 2000. Surreal.

But the Fed, TBTE banks, offshore shadow banks' dark pools, and their exchange-sponsored HFT algobots know this, which is why the Fed/TBTE banks continue to print and lever SPX equity index futures and hedge forward unrelentingly.

Merry Xmas to you, too.
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