There are now so many converging cyclical, secular, sentiment, EW, TD, valuation, and breadth indicators screaming a top of some degree I have lost count. I have been following and trading the markets since Aug 1984, and the convergence of signals is rivaled only by 1929, 1937, 1973, 1987, 2000, 2007, and the Nikkei in 1989-90 and 2000. Surreal.
But the Fed, TBTE banks, offshore shadow banks' dark pools, and their exchange-sponsored HFT algobots know this, which is why the Fed/TBTE banks continue to print and lever SPX equity index futures and hedge forward unrelentingly.
Merry Xmas to you, too.
The SPX is up 50-60% since 2011, a period during which revenues and earnings have been relatively flat, with real reported earnings having contracted along the way. The only two times in the history of the SPX (and Composite) going back to the 1870s (Shiller's data) during which a similar phenomenon occurred were the periods 1927-29 and 1986-87. The melt-up we have witnessed since 2011-12 (Sornette's log-period super-exponential bubble blow-off) is one for the history books, or it requires rewriting the history books.