I am of the opinion we are likely to see a significant retracement of recent gains. Much of last week’s gains are likely attributable to the typical gains seen in the two weeks prior to OPEX which have contributed significantly to overall gains in $SPX. In the last week of OPEX (this week) we have often seen higher prices followed by a collapse and a lower weekly close. I am expecting this to occur this week and my thesis is supported the high percentage of stocks below their 52 week high, the Coppock Curve and two interesting developments brought to our attention by Tom McClellan and Rob Hanna. The price at which failure occurs is likely to be in the 2045 to 2065, a range where there are a number of levels of fierce resistance and where price would complement the existing formation of varying shoulder patterns.
From McClellan Financial:
That +386 Oscillator reading back in January 2009 offers us a great case study to amplify this point. On the RAMO, that was a +122 reading, so the most recent RAMO reading of +105 is comparable. That January 2009 Oscillator spike was not the start of a strong new uptrend, although it felt like it at the time for a lot of people, and then prices went on to fall to a lower low in March 2009.
From Quantifiable Edges:
Monday was the 2nd day in a row where the SPX and VIX both closed higher. For those unaware, VIX is a measure of options volatility. It most often will trade inverse to the SPX. So it is unusual to see both SPX and VIX close higher. It is especially unusual to see this happen 2 days in a row. And even more so when SPX is below its 200ma. Early indications from this setup suggest the market could experience a sharp drop in the next few days
From McClellan Financial:
That +386 Oscillator reading back in January 2009 offers us a great case study to amplify this point. On the RAMO, that was a +122 reading, so the most recent RAMO reading of +105 is comparable. That January 2009 Oscillator spike was not the start of a strong new uptrend, although it felt like it at the time for a lot of people, and then prices went on to fall to a lower low in March 2009.
From Quantifiable Edges:
Monday was the 2nd day in a row where the SPX and VIX both closed higher. For those unaware, VIX is a measure of options volatility. It most often will trade inverse to the SPX. So it is unusual to see both SPX and VIX close higher. It is especially unusual to see this happen 2 days in a row. And even more so when SPX is below its 200ma. Early indications from this setup suggest the market could experience a sharp drop in the next few days