Intraday picture: Ballistic through mid field resistance (closes today and tomorrow could be relevant).
The realised Volatility is clearly growing at the top.
There seems to be too much energy available for the narrow band in which SPX navigate (daily moves of 40pts within a band of 100pts) – Not good going forward I think or it is a black swan up in which I don’t believe.
Mid field resistance: 2019/2033 (a close tonight below 2024 would keep the short game plan in shape)
Monthly Pivot: 2048 (above which bulls take control again although the spcace above is limited vertically)
Last news of the year out:
- Yellen very smooth, removes “considerable time” and adds “patience” -1+1=0
- Putin Speech out – From what I read: just backing his central bank.
Technically:
- 1980 was key support and held on first touch.
- After a (classic) 5% correction, SPX is bouncing back to its middle field pivot.
- Seasonnaly: Statistics suggest next week is one that has the highest probability during the year to be positive.
- Weekly Pivot: 2024 – Higher intraday – Close tonight interesting for the weekly picture.
- Monthly Pivot : 2048
- Tactical Stop for shorts: 2055 on close)
- Tactical Support for longs: 2010
NOTE:
(1) The market is very fast right now (70pts in 2 days) and vertically it “can’t” go higher than 2090.
(2) To go sustainably higher, the market would need to change regime and move slowly up right.
(3) Although the short looks desperate, there was a strong rebound on the 3rd of October and the 8th of October that ended up being just squeeze.
For the moment we have a technical bounce in which smooth Yellen fed through (+ santa claus expectation)
We will have a better idea tomorrow on weekly close.
The realised Volatility is clearly growing at the top.
There seems to be too much energy available for the narrow band in which SPX navigate (daily moves of 40pts within a band of 100pts) – Not good going forward I think or it is a black swan up in which I don’t believe.
Mid field resistance: 2019/2033 (a close tonight below 2024 would keep the short game plan in shape)
Monthly Pivot: 2048 (above which bulls take control again although the spcace above is limited vertically)
Last news of the year out:
- Yellen very smooth, removes “considerable time” and adds “patience” -1+1=0
- Putin Speech out – From what I read: just backing his central bank.
Technically:
- 1980 was key support and held on first touch.
- After a (classic) 5% correction, SPX is bouncing back to its middle field pivot.
- Seasonnaly: Statistics suggest next week is one that has the highest probability during the year to be positive.
- Weekly Pivot: 2024 – Higher intraday – Close tonight interesting for the weekly picture.
- Monthly Pivot : 2048
- Tactical Stop for shorts: 2055 on close)
- Tactical Support for longs: 2010
NOTE:
(1) The market is very fast right now (70pts in 2 days) and vertically it “can’t” go higher than 2090.
(2) To go sustainably higher, the market would need to change regime and move slowly up right.
(3) Although the short looks desperate, there was a strong rebound on the 3rd of October and the 8th of October that ended up being just squeeze.
For the moment we have a technical bounce in which smooth Yellen fed through (+ santa claus expectation)
We will have a better idea tomorrow on weekly close.