I guess there were guys with this type of charts in Mar2000 or Oct2007... and probably at the time, it looked too as it always does on a proper top.
This graph is very simple, the take aways:
- 5y rally which is the time frame we had in 82-87,88-93, 95-00, 02/07, 09/14
- 200% up, you could tell me why not 300%. Ok.
- important coming from the 2004/2006 upside congestion In logarithmic.
- Important coming from 2010/2011 caping line in logarithmic.
- The progress of the 09/14 rally is exactly 161.8% of the progress of 02/07. Striking
- A 3 week rally that looks odd where it is
- SPX is below previous 09/14 weekly supporting line despite this amazing rally.
- All tops looks and are bought. This spirit is definitely at play here.
So yes there is a risk of over shoot, but given the precision of the chart and the potential down, it is worth it to tempt a short with a stop around 2080 and we never know, that could be the top for 3 years.
If this works you put it in the back book with a stop on entry and you deal with normal operations