Biff_Tannen

S&P500 Still a coinflip, but time is running out.

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
703 12 10
Scenario 1 = Green
Pattern of 2011-2012 is still very similar including the double bottom. We have to make a clear turn next week.

Scenario 2 = Red
Pattern of 2007-2008 into 2009 slightly shifted in time, double bottom took place in 2008. This means that the drop already is taking place, one bump and it is off the races!

It will never be exactly the same of course. If we take the percentage drop in account, there is a chance that it can go under a 1000 points!
If we compare the 2008 and 2011 pattern to now, the current pattern is slightly more compressed, which corresponds with the faster pace markets move nowadays. Be ready for the big and fast ripper!

Related Ideas

Will Wong
a year ago
Taking a segment of the chart 2 years into a 7 year bull cycle and superimposing it to the end of the bull cycle is a lot less convincing than taking a bearish segment from the end of the last bull cycle and superimposing it to the end of this 7 year bull cycle.
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elp
a year ago
There is another fractal that is never mentioned. Years 1949-1953. This fractal would suggest a low at the end of the month or early jan. Testing august lows or even slightly breaking them. all bs at the moment.
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elp
a year ago
the 49-53 fractal suggests a big rally in year 2016 into 2017
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elp
a year ago
I think we could see 15k trade? I don´t know.
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elp
a year ago
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Reekardo elp
a year ago
did we make the turn? thanks in advance
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elp Reekardo
a year ago
Picking an actual bottom or top is pure luck. What I am noticing is CL and the SPX tend to make important bottoms together. If CL starts to form a base here the SPX could have made a low in august or another retest of lows. CL needs to hold the bottom TL on a monthly close or it could go lower dragging the US indices with it.
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elp Reekardo
a year ago
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elp Reekardo
a year ago
ES March contract. As for making a turn in the SPX I don´t know. Price is still in an upper trading range. If on Monday price closes above thursdays high it would expose november highs. If price sells off monday I would think the bottom TL could act as support where price could rally into the end of the week making a lower high. Where a larger sell off could start. All speculation at the moment.
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elp Reekardo
a year ago
One more chart and I will stop spaming the comments. On a monthly chart. The bollinger bands are at a market extreme where the width of the bb´s are getting tighter. In the last 65 years when the bb´s were this tight it resulted in the market experiencing a big rally once the actual low was in place. The last time the bb´s were this tight on a monthly chart was 20 years ago 1994-1995. If history repeats a nice rally could be infront of us then a correction of 28%-50% on the SPX.
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Reekardo elp
a year ago
great chart and information
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Reekardo
a year ago
did we make the turn? thanks in advance?
Reply
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