FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
536 1 4
1) Speed decreasing since May13 with capping line at 2140 (1% away).
2) Speed decreasing since Oct14 with 80% if the move done in the first 2 months.
3) The month of May has 83% chance to bring a correction when there has been no major correction in the previous months and the performance was strong in the months preceding which is the case here.
4) The market has been in upward posture for 6 months which has been a good time frame since Mar09.
5) The current progress is 16.5% which has been a common average performance on many swings since Mar09
6) 5 waves since Oct14.
7) My Elliott reading is that this swing is wave 5 to compare with wave 1 from Jun12 to Sep12 and that wave 1 was 16.8% ( exactly like the perf since Oct14).
8) If these wave 1-2-3-4-5 since Jun12 are complete, the performance over the last 2 years has been 67%. A very decent peformance from a decent base of 1260 when the average long term performance is 7.5%.
9) the performance distribution accross the year is historically 7.5% from Oct             to May and 0% from may to oct             .
10) Nasdaq is against speed limit.
11) DAX             is not currently ballistic and when it was, it did not really push sp500             higher.
12) Earnings are decreasing slightly.
13) More good news on the macro side would be compensated by a rate hike.
14) SPX             reaching prices where bad news will be bad news even if it prevent rate hikes.
15) Market is mostly positionned long (at historical extremes in the last 15y).
16) Market is hedging massively (highest put/call reading over the last 15y).
17) PE of 20. Same as 2007 but still far below the bubble levels of 2000.

What else?
reluctantplumber
2 years ago
Sell in May and go away.
Reply
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