AynCzubas
Short

Potential Decline Waveform & Targets

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
55 2 2
From the perspective that wave b concluded at 2137.1 and the decline down to 1833.5 was wave 1 of c (c expected to be a destructive downward impulsive wave):

The consolidation pattern up to 2021.4 represented an exact .618 retracement of the decline of wave 1 and may be considered wave 2.

I suspect Wave 3 of c may ultimately be 1.382 to 1.618 the length of wave 2, concluding within the range where all of the following are true:

Year 2007 Peak High (1576)
.382 correction of the years 2009-2015 rally (1607)
.618 of the distance from 2137.1 peak to the point where wave c will equal wave a (wave a was the 3-wave correction from years 2000-2009)

Wave 4 would be expected to retrace .382 of wave 3.

Wave 5 might be equal to .618 of the distance from 2137.1 to the extreme of wave 3, which would seem to loosely correlate with the thrust targets I am gleaning from the triangle between 1833.5 and 2021.4 (2nd waves are not technically considered triangles themselves, according to E.W. test, but in some cases I believe they can be and can indicate the thrust for wave 3). This region also correlates with the points where wave c = a (a common relationship) and the .618 correction of the 2009-20015 rally. That would be in the 1200-1300 area.

I believe such a pattern will constitute a greater first wave of wave c, which will then be retraced back to potentially 1833.5 before further decline, possibly to a level where c = 1.618 of wave a. Perhaps 752.

Purple lines in the chart are only intended to estimate price points, not timeframe.
AynCzubas
a year ago
Further Explanation of Triangle Thrust Estimate in Chart: Originally, I had been counting the undulations from 1833.5 as waves "abcd" of the contracting triangle, until the spike up to 2021.4 occurred, surpassing the "c" wave of the triangle and casting doubt on the validity of that wave count. There is still a possibility that the 2021.4 peak was a wave "(a)" of "e" and that "e" itself ultimately completed its own minor triangle below the level of wave "c" and is therefore still valid. However, there is often more than one way of looking at things simultaneously. More recent price action has since formed additional contracting waves which could resolve in 2021.4 as being a very convoluted, very late-ending wave "a" and these additional waves as very hastily formed "b", "c", "d" and "e" ending up at 1975.7.

If that is the case (that is assuming price stays below 1975.7), the thrust potential from this triangle has become much deeper than previously estimated. Following presumed "e" ending at 1975.7, an impulse wave down to 1921.5 has formed. I expect it to be retraced .618 or .786 before continuing on its path, which presently looks to be destined for 1313 or lower.
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AynCzubas AynCzubas
a year ago
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