npatz_2000

WYCKOFF - DISTRIBUTION OR RE-ACCUMULATION ON SPY

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
9
This is an interesting time in the markets right now. This is a chart of the SPY for the last 3.5 years. As anyone can see the S&P has been in a nice uptrend without any violations of the current trend channel (white). The upward trend line in the middle of the channel (Aqua) has also been a line of support over the last 3.5 years, which price is at right now (plus added confluence of support at the Blue resistance turned support line meeting the Aqua uptrend line). We could see a higher high on a bounce off this trend line, but I think that even if we see this it will most likely be short lived and on "no demand" type volume. I think there is just too much weakness in the background evidenced by the higher highs on negative net volume as shown, plus the first increase in supply volume on the last correction (potentially an automatic retracement). This last higher high could also be the "head" in a head and shoulder pattern (AKA distribution phase). However, it is almost impossible to know if this is distribution or re-accumulation (a pause before another leg in the current uptrend). Either way I think we trade sideways for the next couple of weeks, at least. If this is distribution it could be months within a trading range between $185 and $210. However, that doesn't mean that I wouldn't take a small position on a valid long setup. Such as a break of the short term down trend line (Magenta) with confluence of Aqua and Blue support; or a break of a deeper down trend line with confluence at the bottom of the current uptrend channel (white). "DON'T FIGHT THE TREND"
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