mbrennan
Short

Suspected Index Top; 50-55% Chance that the top is in

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
134 1 1
The market has not touched the EMA for 2.5 years (36 bars) and therefore is continuing its buy climax ( BX             ). Pullbacks on the monthly chart are aggressively bought, and therefore the first deep pullback will probably test the December high. This test (T) could be a higher high (HH) or to a lower high (LH).

Two measured move projections point to the December high. One is the external retracement projection of 1.618, the other is of a MM based on the first two legs up.

The beige line on top in the channel line ( CL             ). A bull breakout of a bull channel line is a buy climax and usually corrects down to sideways in two legs and at least 10 bars.

November, December and January have formed an ioi (inside outside inside) breakout-mode pattern with a bear signal bar, increasing the chances of sellers below the Jan low.

Any selloff will likely not be aggressive because of the prior trend's strength. In fact, I suspect the first deeper pullback to be bought and to test the all time high.
Comment: Bulls want this year-long trading range to be a bull flag, leading to some kind of measured move up. The bears want this to transistion into a major trend reversal and begin making lower highs and lower lows.

A trading range is likely to continue.
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