Weekly candlesticks of SPY over TLT - i.e. SPDR S&P 500 stocks over iShares Long Term Treasury is pulling back and since new high in Jan 2021 has a long way to go (around 20%) to support.
It does not necessarily mean that stocks will drop.
But it could be that treasuries over perform (and stocks go sideways or even up but treasury prices are just stronger).
This may be a little counter to the "inflation" narrative.
Although may be because
1. market is buying into "transitory inflation" and remember that it prices the future and not the present
2. inflation has just become a crowded trade
It does not necessarily mean that stocks will drop.
But it could be that treasuries over perform (and stocks go sideways or even up but treasury prices are just stronger).
This may be a little counter to the "inflation" narrative.
Although may be because
1. market is buying into "transitory inflation" and remember that it prices the future and not the present
2. inflation has just become a crowded trade
Trade active
Trade closed: stop reached:
regained that higher
treasury had it's chance and didn't take it
yes, there's always a chance this could be a double top but not taking chance of a stock rip higher at this point
treasury had it's chance and didn't take it
yes, there's always a chance this could be a double top but not taking chance of a stock rip higher at this point