Technically we are looking at a Pattern. Identified correctly, can be used to accurately predict the scope (equilibrium price) of the underlying security. To identify , they must have the following characteristics:
Waves 3-4 must stay within the channel created by 1-2
Wave 1-2 equals waves 3-4 (shows symmetry)
Wave 4 is within the channel created by waves 1-2
There is regular time between all waves
Wave 5 exceeds created by waves 1 and 3 and is the entry point
The estimated price is a price along the created by waves 1 and 4 (point 6).
Fibonacci measurements also help you plot forecasted hits on discovered ascending/descending . A 2-3 to 1.618/1.414 is usually the spot for the 5th wave. Also a measure from 2-1 with a 2.414 fib can also measure a 5th wave target.
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chairman.
Chairman Ben Bernanke will miss the annual Jackson Hole meeting this August.
I'm studying a more sure bet at the moment and will probably make a play on TLT, U.S. long term bond ETF. It's possible SPY, which plays inverse to higher yields and stronger bond prices, is pricing in a strong bullish move in the bond market.