nmike
Long

SPY monthly update

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
879 17 14
The bullish trend continues. SPY             is currently above all blue averages with price close to a parallel CLONE trend line resistance. The Fisher is overextend but no bearish Fisher patterns or divergence. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself and we get a similar Fisher topping pattern like the previous 2. The current Fisher peak could be the start of that pattern. If we break trend line B the next upside target is about the height of the A B channel.
admin PRO
3 years ago
What about the fundamental factors? I.e. U.S. funding crisis weighs on markets...
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I'd say no taper trumps U.S. shutdown. We could get some volatility as we near Oct. 24 hard deadline for debt ceiling.
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nmike MOD admin
3 years ago
hello @admin, not an expert on fundamentals,I regard most of it as noise anyway.I keep hearing from Bloomberg that some retail investors missed this latest bull run because of fear from all the talk about the Fiscal Cliff back in Nov / Dec last year(2012)
Check out the commentaries (fundamentals VS technicals ) on this chart published 9 months ago
CLIFF HUNTING, what going down a CLIFF looks like
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OldGoat
3 years ago
My view is not as bullish as yours. What I see are investors buying "bargains" toward the top of a cycle.

The last up cycle ran for 5 years, this one is 4 1/2 at this point. There is divergence in RSI, CCI, and Fisher (as well as most any indicator you want to pick) when multiyear tops are considered; which seems appropriate for a monthly bar chart. While PE ratios are not at record breaking levels, they are pushing up to the upper limits of what likely makes sense in the current economy.

If a sensible deal can be reached in Congress the upside could be quite spectacular. However, I consider that a low probability event with the current Congress. While they will probably cook up something to kick the can down the road, it is unlikely they will resolve anything that lasts more than a few weeks (maybe months on the optimistic side).

It may not be time to short the market (very difficult to time precisely), but it seems to me it is a time to be cautious.
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nmike MOD OldGoat
3 years ago
@OldGoat... agreed
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G13Man
3 years ago
I do not understand how people not working for the federal gov and not getting a paycheck is bad for the economy . after all this is borrowed money anyways and would be taxed out of us anyways .. politicians should not get above min wage anyways if they truly are working for altruistic reasons , and if not then they should get real jobs . well maybe pork futures are dropping LOL
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
DAILY VIEW.....
snapshot
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isitpossible
3 years ago
Take a look at this:
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RSI, CCI, PPO - all 3 have started showing divergence, now all we need is a rollover on MACD which shall occur in next 2-4 months confirming start of BEAR market.... ONLY time will tell.
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KevinT
3 years ago
Looking at Fisher (14), is see two bearish sign. Any opinion on this?

snapshot
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nmike MOD KevinT
3 years ago
@KevinT.......the Fisher(14) is too short unless you'er using it for short term trading.You should be using Fisher 34 for a longer term view.Remember that divergences must be supported by candle stick price action.Currently there is no major divergence on daily frame, there is a minor divergence in RSI but not supported by price action,furthermore SPY has broken out of a channel so expect further upside.

snapshot
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KevinT nmike
3 years ago
Thanks. I also see the MA supports upside.
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
..... the bulls march on, next near term target is the parallel Clone trend line

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nmike MOD
2 years ago
....well folks ,same message as last one.....
and HAPPY HOLIDAYS, Nmike
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MrKaraman nmike
2 years ago
Merry Christmas!!
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nmike MOD
2 years ago
....the bulls still in charge
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nmike MOD
2 years ago
....just a quick note, the NYSE is well above the previous high and candle stick price action continues to be bullish.
snapshot
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charlie.delta.trader nmike
2 years ago
2000 and SELL
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