Bears Moving In: New And Old Bearish Targets In Sight | #SP500


This past January 25th, 2014, I offered a bearish target @ 176.25, based on the 5-prime completion of a Wolfe Wave pattern. I speculated that the market would NOT rally to any higher than the narrow overhead resistance (pink zone), but instead, it pierced right through it. No upper target were defined, but price did depart forcefully from its 1-4 Profit Line, as the Wolfe Wave would have it - A beautiful pattern, indeed.

As of today, I would like to to define and perhaps re-define targets that were already in existence. Indeed, last January 25th, 2014, the two bearish targets in sight were:

1 - TG-1 = 176.19, which was hit and propelled price to a significant relief rally.
2 - TG-Lo = 167.97. At the time, this target was NOT given a "Lo" qualifier and a low probability RED color, but as of today, this is the case.

Now that my prop system has signaled a renewed bearish confirmation signal, I would like to add the following:

1 - TG-1 remains a significant target, again, mainly for the structural quality it is now imposing IF and when price returned to its level.

2 - A new secondary target would open up IF and once TG-1 gets validated. This remains a moderate probability target (yellow color), but one to heed, nonetheless.

3 - As mentioned above, TG-Lo @ 167.97 has been downgraded to a low-probability target (in red), but bears have moved other indices, and a pan-market reversal under the effect of a collective mother bear is becoming a probability event here. In fact, 6 months ago, a more abysmal target was defined, but abandoned, looking at 161.04 as a probable level to visit - See the chart here:https://www.tradingview.com/v/AbscH8Xv/

For your review of the Wolfe Waves pattern, here are the charts and commentaries offered since the release of the 176.19 target, this past January 25th:

1 - 25 JAN 2014: "Predictive Analysis: Brown And Reclused: SPDR?"

2 - "Did The Big Bad Wolfe Scare You?" - Here, the Wolfe Target Line is hit, but NOT my price target ... Yet:

3 - "Update: Spider Clings Onto Wolfe" - A quick technical update as price moves to forecast target:

4 - "Target Hit ... Relief Rally ..." - And finally the comment once forecast is complete:

I hope you enjoyed this pattern as much as I did.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView.com Moderator

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David Alcindor
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