AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
895 11 21
Double top at clone resistance and 5th wave cycle failure. Clone reference is the 2009 low to a peak before the flash crash late April 2010. Fibonacci taken from wave 2 primary to primary 3 of wave 3 cycle EW count.

After we reach the pinnacle of wave 3 primary - 5th cycle - presumable double top ;

Wave 4 A-B EW Cycle correction (or completion A-B-C of wave 4 primary correction) support should hold at the .764 fib line. It also possible we see further retracement after a substantial bounce (B) at .764 fib line before falling to a ending C zag-zig-zag ratrace at 144.33 / .618 Fibonacci level.



When will the US Debt Ceiling Debate heat up? mid to end of September with October 1st the deadline

Debt Ceiling Deadline Pushed Back as Growth Lifts U.S.

The U.S. Treasury Department may have more time than economists previously estimated before the government’s debt limit is reached as changes in tax policy and an economic rebound boost federal revenue.
The date the nation hits the ceiling on borrowing could be pushed back as far as mid-September to Sept. 30 from a previous estimate of late August to mid-September

A later deadline would give Congress more time to debate lifting the cap and postpone any vote until after the August recess. President Barack Obama in February signed legislation suspending the $16.4 trillion debt limit through May 18. The Treasury uses so-called extraordinary measures to push the deadline further.
Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said last week Congress should “extend the debt limit to remove any uncertainty” and declined to estimate when the ceiling would be reached.
How to Trade Out a 4th Wave
by Avi Gilburt, on March 7th, 2013
Initially posted as a Swing Alert (Mar 4, 2013 12:50:01)

I wanted to take a moment and address a concern that many have about how to trade out of a 4th wave, especially in the case where it is unclear as to whether the 4th wave has actually been completed. KGBgirl and I went through this discussion months ago, and we came to a conclusion that seems to make sense for the conservative traders, especially since the aggressive traders will do what they will anyway.

So, ideally, the safest way to trade a 5th wave when there are questions about the completion of the 4th wave is to wait for the break out. Now, that does not mean you buy the break out, as those who have been here long enough know my feelings about buying a break out. I only suggest buys at Fib support levels.

What I mean is that a break out from a 4th wave usually becomes most apparent when the market takes out resistance in wave iii of (3) of the 5th wave. And since we know that the target for such a wave is usually the 1.00 or 1.236 extension, then our expectation is that wave iv of (3) will pullback to the .764 or .618 extension in a corrective pullback.

So, in my opinion, that would be the safest place to buy for the more conservative traders with you ultimate target being the 1.764 extension, and potentially the 2.00 extension. But, remember, you will be within a 5th wave, and it may not reach the full 2.00 extension, so you may want to take your ball home early, and just pocket what you made with less risk, as the market would be at a point of impending reversal.

As for those more nimble, you can always exit at the 1.382 or 1.618 extension to complete wave v of (3) and then buy again after the wave (4) pulls back to the 1.00 extension for the run to the 1.764 extension. This gives you two trades within that final 5th wave in a much safer manner.

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knock
3 years ago
When is the debt ceiling debate? Thanks.
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Deadline is Oct. 1... No deal = Govt shutdown

Also we should actually go over our debt ceiling much sooner than was forecasted. Treasuries have risen significantly and most had predicted our breach of debt threshold several months ago with lower interest rate.
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2013 United States debt-ceiling debate

The United States debt-ceiling debate of 2013 is part of an ongoing political debate in the United States Congress about the appropriate level of government spending and its consequential impact on the national debt and debt ceiling. In mid-January 2013, President Obama requested an increase in the debt ceiling and the US Treasury announced its projection that all government funds would be exhausted between mid-February and early March. The parties could not agree on measures to achieve a long-term resolution of the issues. As a result of the failure to achieve agreement on a long-term solution, the debt ceiling was suspended on February 4, 2013 until May 19, 2013. During this period, the debt ceiling will be raised to a level "necessary to fund commitment incurred by the Federal Government that required payment."

Background

Following the passing in early January 2013 of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 to avert the projected fiscal cliff, political debate shifted to the debt ceiling. The ceiling is a limit set by Congress on the amount that the government can borrow for public spending and was set at $16.4 trillion in 2011. The debt ceiling was technically reached on December 31, 2012, and extraordinary measures were taken by the Treasury Department to enable spending to continue. According to a letter from Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner to Congress on January 14, the Treasury projected that funds would be exhausted between mid-February and early March.
On January 15, 2013, Fitch Ratings warned that delays in raising the debt ceiling could result in a formal review of the credit rating of the U.S., potentially leading to it being downgraded from AAA. Fitch cautioned that a downgrade could also result from the absence of a plan to bring down the deficit in the medium term.

Debate

In a press conference on January 14, 2013, President Obama stated that not raising the debt ceiling would cause delays in payments including benefits and government employees' salaries and lead to default on government debt. President Obama urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling without conditions to avoid a default by the United States on government debt. Raising the debt ceiling was also supported by Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Republican Speaker of the House, John Boehner and the Senate Republican minority leader, Mitch McConnell as well as other Republicans argued that the debt ceiling should not be raised unless spending cuts were made to reduce the budget deficit to avoid future fiscal problems. Republicans argued that the Treasury can avoid debt default by prioritizing interest payments on government debt over other obligations. Heritage Action for America, the Family Research Council and the Club for Growth argued that a raise in the debt ceiling should be accompanied by a plan to balance the budget within ten years, through reduced spending in the discretionary budget as well as for entitlements.
Several Democratic House of Congress representatives, including Peter Welch, proposed removing the debt ceiling altogether. This proposal found support from some economists such as Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. A survey of 38 economists from the University of Chicago found that 84% agreed that a separate debt ceiling that is periodically increased could lead to uncertainty and poor fiscal outcomes.

Outcome

On February 4, 2013, President Obama signed into law the "No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013", which suspended the U.S. debt ceiling through May 18, 2013. The bill was passed in the Senate two weeks previously by a vote of 64-34, with all no votes being from Republican senators who were critical of the lack of spending cuts that accompanied an increase in the limit. In the House, the bill passed the week before by a vote of 285-144, with both parties voting in favor. In the House a provision was attached by Republican representatives that mandates the temporary withholding of pay to members of Congress if they do not produce a budget plan. Under the law, the debt ceiling will be set on May 19, 2013 to a level "necessary to fund commitment incurred by the Federal Government that required payment."
Following the suspension of the debt ceiling, debate regarding the debt ceiling and strategies to reduce the national debt continued. Republicans in the Senate introduced a balanced budget amendment to set limits on government spending and national debt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_debt-ceiling_debate
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Great chart and text JR
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO WallStScalper
3 years ago
Looks like a complex ending triangle
Reply
May not be 5th Wave at all after further consideration and charting the EW rules
snapshot


http://thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
magic numbers
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Double and Triple Zigzag Patterns
We use WXY to denote a double zigzag, instead of the standard ABCXABC Elliott notation. For the triple zigzag, this becomes WXYX(2)Z

http://stocata.org/ta_en/elliott4.html
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snapshot


Considering Alternative
Looking through R.N. Elliott EW charts for similarities
Shallow Cycle 4
Long Flat 1600 support/floor

W-X-Y
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
W-X-Y
Charts to study

http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/Lesson3/3-5.htm
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