Have mixed feelings about this one.
The move today is very bullish, still need to check volume at end of the day, but I'm guessing it is above average with the gap up over friday. It steadily made higher prices throughout the day.
However we are reaching the 200 resistance line. And I previously considered 197.5 to be a resistance area. I think there is a good change that we are at a resistance area and the market will react. However, given the strength of the move, I would not be surprised if we break out above 200 and start climbing higher. Maybe the resistance range will extend to the to top of the upthrust to 203.
The reason I lost a lot of money was from over trading. However it is hard for me to differentiate if what I am doing now is considered overtrading.
This is my reasoning, the risk/reward is small. I will be able to tell easily if I'm wrong, if the market pushes above 200, and especially if above 203. Probably will be able to determine strength of the market tomorrow. And then I will be able to get out. But the reward will be the move from 198 to 188, and probably at a faster pace than when it climbs up.
I just need to make sure I don't keep shorting the market with every leg up to avoid overtrading. I think it is more important that I don't let my fear of overtrading prevent me from taking positions in the market.
Looking at the chart now, I may have trigger finger, market will probably reach 200, and I should have waited for tomorrow. If it doesn't, it indicates weakness. I still have FOMO.
VIX @ 19.2
The move today is very bullish, still need to check volume at end of the day, but I'm guessing it is above average with the gap up over friday. It steadily made higher prices throughout the day.
However we are reaching the 200 resistance line. And I previously considered 197.5 to be a resistance area. I think there is a good change that we are at a resistance area and the market will react. However, given the strength of the move, I would not be surprised if we break out above 200 and start climbing higher. Maybe the resistance range will extend to the to top of the upthrust to 203.
The reason I lost a lot of money was from over trading. However it is hard for me to differentiate if what I am doing now is considered overtrading.
This is my reasoning, the risk/reward is small. I will be able to tell easily if I'm wrong, if the market pushes above 200, and especially if above 203. Probably will be able to determine strength of the market tomorrow. And then I will be able to get out. But the reward will be the move from 198 to 188, and probably at a faster pace than when it climbs up.
I just need to make sure I don't keep shorting the market with every leg up to avoid overtrading. I think it is more important that I don't let my fear of overtrading prevent me from taking positions in the market.
Looking at the chart now, I may have trigger finger, market will probably reach 200, and I should have waited for tomorrow. If it doesn't, it indicates weakness. I still have FOMO.
VIX @ 19.2
Comment:
almost an inside day. HOD slightly higher than previous HOD, but never reached the open of yesterday.
smaller range than yesterday. Failed to make new highs, but lows higher than pervious day's open is a pretty bullish indication.
Volume is less than yesterday. Is low volume, small range, with close near the middle of the range a sign of uncertainty?
SPY
close: 197.79
volume: 110.27M vs avg vol:148.76M
VIX: 19.4
expirationDate, callPut, strike, last
October 23, 2015, call, 197.00, 3.18
October 23, 2015, call, 197.50, 3.01
October 23, 2015, call, 198.00, 2.58
October 23, 2015, call, 198.50, 2.57
October 23, 2015, put, 197.00, 2.66
October 23, 2015, put, 197.50, 2.81
October 23, 2015, put, 198.00, 3.04
October 23, 2015, put, 198.50, 3.29
smaller range than yesterday. Failed to make new highs, but lows higher than pervious day's open is a pretty bullish indication.
Volume is less than yesterday. Is low volume, small range, with close near the middle of the range a sign of uncertainty?
SPY
close: 197.79
volume: 110.27M vs avg vol:148.76M
VIX: 19.4
expirationDate, callPut, strike, last
October 23, 2015, call, 197.00, 3.18
October 23, 2015, call, 197.50, 3.01
October 23, 2015, call, 198.00, 2.58
October 23, 2015, call, 198.50, 2.57
October 23, 2015, put, 197.00, 2.66
October 23, 2015, put, 197.50, 2.81
October 23, 2015, put, 198.00, 3.04
October 23, 2015, put, 198.50, 3.29
Comment:
November 20, 2015, call, 197.00, 5.32
November 20, 2015, call, 198.00, 4.60
November 20, 2015, put, 197.00, 4.65
November 20, 2015, put, 198.00, 5.07
November 20, 2015, call, 198.00, 4.60
November 20, 2015, put, 197.00, 4.65
November 20, 2015, put, 198.00, 5.07
Comment:
higher highs and higher lows. close above high of Monday. bullish indication. High of day was early in the session at 199.8. Close is at like 75% of the range. Volume is higher than yesterday, lightly below average.
I wouldn't say there was a winner today. More like hesitation. However more bullish than bearish because of the close about Monday's high.
I am concerned that there is distribution going on at 199.5. Failed to recover highs from beginning of the session, and saw repeated resistance at 199.5
SPY
close: 199.41
volume: 124.31M vs avg vol:148.00M
VIX: 18.4
expirationDate, callPut, strike, last
October 23, 2015, call, 198.50, 3.17
October 23, 2015, call, 199.00, 2.80
October 23, 2015, call, 199.50, 2.55
October 23, 2015, call, 200.00, 2.27
October 23, 2015, put, 198.50, 2.24
October 23, 2015, put, 199.00, 2.42
October 23, 2015, put, 199.50, 2.82
October 23, 2015, put, 200.00, 2.85
November 20, 2015, call, 199.00, 4.86
November 20, 2015, call, 200.00, 4.28
November 20, 2015, put, 199.00, 4.45
November 20, 2015, put, 200.00, 4.87
I wouldn't say there was a winner today. More like hesitation. However more bullish than bearish because of the close about Monday's high.
I am concerned that there is distribution going on at 199.5. Failed to recover highs from beginning of the session, and saw repeated resistance at 199.5
SPY
close: 199.41
volume: 124.31M vs avg vol:148.00M
VIX: 18.4
expirationDate, callPut, strike, last
October 23, 2015, call, 198.50, 3.17
October 23, 2015, call, 199.00, 2.80
October 23, 2015, call, 199.50, 2.55
October 23, 2015, call, 200.00, 2.27
October 23, 2015, put, 198.50, 2.24
October 23, 2015, put, 199.00, 2.42
October 23, 2015, put, 199.50, 2.82
October 23, 2015, put, 200.00, 2.85
November 20, 2015, call, 199.00, 4.86
November 20, 2015, call, 200.00, 4.28
November 20, 2015, put, 199.00, 4.45
November 20, 2015, put, 200.00, 4.87
Comment:
Been wrong on the direction 3 days so far and about 3 points off I believe.
Comment:
Lowest volume since 9/23 (13 days ago)
Very small range today, and closed at the middle of the range.
Choppy action today. Tested 202 early in the morning, then tested support at 200.5 mid day.
Especially on a Friday, this shows the market is hesitant or indecisive in its direction.
I still going with my original hypothesis: Since it broke above 200 resistance, and is showing a decent support today at 200.5, I think we won't see real supply until closer to 203. The old me would try to predict the resistance and enter a position right now thinking we are close the resistance. However since I am already in a short position, I be patient and wait until confirmation on Monday. Today showed hesitation, and we may still continue upward on Monday. I think I will enter another short position if we failed to make a higher high than 202, and we test below 200.5.
SPY
close: 201.33
volume: 105.31M vs avg vol:148.07M
VIX: 17.08
expirationDate, callPut, strike, last
October 23, 2015, call, 200.50, 2.63
October 23, 2015, call, 201.00, 2.36
October 23, 2015, call, 201.50, 2.07
October 23, 2015, call, 202.00, 1.75
October 23, 2015, put, 200.50, 1.75
October 23, 2015, put, 201.00, 2.01
October 23, 2015, put, 201.50, 2.19
October 23, 2015, put, 202.00, 2.36
November 20, 2015, call, 201.00, 4.35
November 20, 2015, call, 202.00, 3.85
November 20, 2015, put, 201.00, 4.07
November 20, 2015, put, 202.00, 4.49
Current position: 1.35 (down .33) :(
still not ready to close position yet. 42 DTE. Time is still on my side.
Very small range today, and closed at the middle of the range.
Choppy action today. Tested 202 early in the morning, then tested support at 200.5 mid day.
Especially on a Friday, this shows the market is hesitant or indecisive in its direction.
I still going with my original hypothesis: Since it broke above 200 resistance, and is showing a decent support today at 200.5, I think we won't see real supply until closer to 203. The old me would try to predict the resistance and enter a position right now thinking we are close the resistance. However since I am already in a short position, I be patient and wait until confirmation on Monday. Today showed hesitation, and we may still continue upward on Monday. I think I will enter another short position if we failed to make a higher high than 202, and we test below 200.5.
SPY
close: 201.33
volume: 105.31M vs avg vol:148.07M
VIX: 17.08
expirationDate, callPut, strike, last
October 23, 2015, call, 200.50, 2.63
October 23, 2015, call, 201.00, 2.36
October 23, 2015, call, 201.50, 2.07
October 23, 2015, call, 202.00, 1.75
October 23, 2015, put, 200.50, 1.75
October 23, 2015, put, 201.00, 2.01
October 23, 2015, put, 201.50, 2.19
October 23, 2015, put, 202.00, 2.36
November 20, 2015, call, 201.00, 4.35
November 20, 2015, call, 202.00, 3.85
November 20, 2015, put, 201.00, 4.07
November 20, 2015, put, 202.00, 4.49
Current position: 1.35 (down .33) :(
still not ready to close position yet. 42 DTE. Time is still on my side.
Comment:
Market has been hovering between 200 and 202. It is still below peak of 203.
I decided I wanted to participate in the market and sell NOV call spread 207/212 for 1.07
I think I may have been impatient because the market is moving sideways between 200 and 202 for a while.
I am concerned I do not have a long position. But if there is resistance at 203 like I expect, I don't think we are in a position for me to go long. Maybe if we fail to make a low to 199 I will put in a long position.
And I am concerned the position I got in isn't the best place, and I am getting in because I'm impatient. But I do think we do have a supply, and I do think we are moving sideways because it is expiration week.
I expect volatility to remove next week.
I decided I wanted to participate in the market and sell NOV call spread 207/212 for 1.07
I think I may have been impatient because the market is moving sideways between 200 and 202 for a while.
I am concerned I do not have a long position. But if there is resistance at 203 like I expect, I don't think we are in a position for me to go long. Maybe if we fail to make a low to 199 I will put in a long position.
And I am concerned the position I got in isn't the best place, and I am getting in because I'm impatient. But I do think we do have a supply, and I do think we are moving sideways because it is expiration week.
I expect volatility to remove next week.
Comment:
Another losing week. EURUSD dropped like a rock and SPY jumped from 202 to 205+
Being the newb I am, I still haven't closed out my positions w/ 29 DTE, and adding another short position at 209/212 for 1.05 (29 DTE also)
Being the newb I am, I still haven't closed out my positions w/ 29 DTE, and adding another short position at 209/212 for 1.05 (29 DTE also)
sounds pretty bullish to me.
SPY
close: 198.47
volume: 126.34M vs avg vol:148.88M
VIX: 19.54
expirationDate, callPut, strike, last
October 23, 2015, call, 197.50, 3.62
October 23, 2015, call, 198.00, 3.17
October 23, 2015, call, 198.50, 2.98
October 23, 2015, call, 199.00, 2.72
October 23, 2015, put, 197.50, 2.72
October 23, 2015, put, 198.00, 2.99
October 23, 2015, put, 198.50, 3.06
October 23, 2015, put, 199.00, 3.20
November 20, 2015, call, 198.00, 5.09
November 20, 2015, call, 199.00, 4.47
November 20, 2015, put, 198.00, 4.92
November 20, 2015, put, 199.00, 5.33