BEI
Long

SPY update

BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
200 3 0
Last down move did not retrace to any Fibonacci retracement but rather bounced between 165.07 (61%) and 163.23 (50%) unless i missed another overcoming fibonacci retracements i noticed this usually means we have more down to come, after prices work out their oversold levels.

Consequently, next move will likely resemble to June's bounce before further movement down. I evaluate the retracement between 50% and 38% Fibo levels (orange rectangle) with potential gap fill.

On the other hand i found it hard to believe prices will behave the same way again, thus keeping in mind another case scenario that could align nicely with my long term fibonacci levels. In order to explain this i believe the market is actually in some kind of range mode although it necessarily needs, from a Fibonacci point of view, to take out the 173.36-175 23 price level (retracements from 2009). the second case scenario would exactly do that, shaking every bear left in this market, maybe trap some late bulls and ultimately surprise the rest as always...after what we'll experience some real selling. This would be case scenario number 2. I am ready for both case scenario and will evaluate every sign of the market to act accordingly, but you have to admit scenario number 2 has more of an actual wicked market touch to it and i like it.

I will be watching prices around MA34 and RSI capacity to stay above 50% (green rectangle). GL.
BEI
3 years ago
Another way to evaluate to chances of prices to continue upswing or reverse for more selling is to watch for prices react to MA34. If prices reach 50% -38% retracement over moving average, and next daily candle closes below this moving average, as well as the range of previous candle, price will automatically go to 157.37. Other variables to watch is capacity for prices to stay above RSI 50% and 15MIN RSI divergence. This couls happen fast if we open with a gap up at those levels, triggering beginning of the selling at the ps along the way could be overseen by watching the 1H RSI trendline backtest from previous downmove, making potential sideways movement but not affecting side of the trade until last entry point has been taken out. On the other side, if prices handle to stay above the state levels this will test highs and maybe ATH,
After more careful observations my scenario 1 is more likely form an historical point of view. 2011 highs (view chart) presented the same kind of movements before big drop on this concurs with my previous ranging market analysis too===>
Why does it have to be either a downtrend or uptrend?


But as always, what really counts in this game is to be prepared, unpredictable macro data could easily make the choice between number 1 or 2 scenario and the better prepared you are the fastest you'll see the move and click the mouse to open a trade at the best risk/reward ratio (157.37 ratio is at ~ 8-10 from these levels)... GL
Why does it have to be either a downtrend or uptrend?
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BEI BEI
3 years ago
2011 highs
snapshot
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BEI
3 years ago
smaller time frame of the move
snapshot
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