Last down move did not retrace to any Fibonacci retracement but rather bounced between 165.07 (61%) and 163.23 (50%) unless i missed another overcoming fibonacci retracements i noticed this usually means we have more down to come, after prices work out their oversold levels.
Consequently, next move will likely resemble to June's bounce before further movement down. I evaluate the retracement between 50% and 38% Fibo levels (orange rectangle) with potential gap fill.
On the other hand i found it hard to believe prices will behave the same way again, thus keeping in mind another case scenario that could align nicely with my long term fibonacci levels. In order to explain this i believe the market is actually in some kind of range mode although it necessarily needs, from a Fibonacci point of view, to take out the 173.36-175 23 price level (retracements from 2009). the second case scenario would exactly do that, shaking every bear left in this market, maybe trap some late bulls and ultimately surprise the rest as always...after what we'll experience some real selling. This would be case scenario number 2. I am ready for both case scenario and will evaluate every sign of the market to act accordingly, but you have to admit scenario number 2 has more of an actual wicked market touch to it and i like it.
I will be watching prices around MA34 and RSI capacity to stay above 50% (green rectangle). GL.
Consequently, next move will likely resemble to June's bounce before further movement down. I evaluate the retracement between 50% and 38% Fibo levels (orange rectangle) with potential gap fill.
On the other hand i found it hard to believe prices will behave the same way again, thus keeping in mind another case scenario that could align nicely with my long term fibonacci levels. In order to explain this i believe the market is actually in some kind of range mode although it necessarily needs, from a Fibonacci point of view, to take out the 173.36-175 23 price level (retracements from 2009). the second case scenario would exactly do that, shaking every bear left in this market, maybe trap some late bulls and ultimately surprise the rest as always...after what we'll experience some real selling. This would be case scenario number 2. I am ready for both case scenario and will evaluate every sign of the market to act accordingly, but you have to admit scenario number 2 has more of an actual wicked market touch to it and i like it.
I will be watching prices around MA34 and RSI capacity to stay above 50% (green rectangle). GL.