Part 2 $SPY Simple Idea - Short Term Downside
Part 1:
As a continuation I still see more downside with a nearterm (5-7 days) target of a downside gap fill in the 400 territory.
A bounce as well as a short term reversal is to be expected on gap fills and that's what I suspect we saw today.
My best guess as to how this continuation may play out (2 theories):
1. We may see the upside gap filled created today, with the reversal leading to the next leg of the movement down towards 400
2. We fail to fill the upside gap and instead find resistance at the converging hourly EMA's, pushing us down early into the next leg down.
You'll notice a lot of "best guess" "may" etc. at the end of the day this is all just intuition mixed with loose TA.
Some confidence was brought on looking at the daily candles, and you'll notice that a retest of the 50 day ema happened much sooner than we otherwise anticipate after such a successful previous bounce off of the 50. With this it feels as though a visit down to the 100 or 200 may be attractive before returning back up towards new ATH's. At the very least, a retest of the psychological 400 level (which we left that sucker in the dust what feels like ages ago) also seems very healthy.
As a continuation I still see more downside with a nearterm (5-7 days) target of a downside gap fill in the 400 territory.
A bounce as well as a short term reversal is to be expected on gap fills and that's what I suspect we saw today.
My best guess as to how this continuation may play out (2 theories):
1. We may see the upside gap filled created today, with the reversal leading to the next leg of the movement down towards 400
2. We fail to fill the upside gap and instead find resistance at the converging hourly EMA's, pushing us down early into the next leg down.
You'll notice a lot of "best guess" "may" etc. at the end of the day this is all just intuition mixed with loose TA.
Some confidence was brought on looking at the daily candles, and you'll notice that a retest of the 50 day ema happened much sooner than we otherwise anticipate after such a successful previous bounce off of the 50. With this it feels as though a visit down to the 100 or 200 may be attractive before returning back up towards new ATH's. At the very least, a retest of the psychological 400 level (which we left that sucker in the dust what feels like ages ago) also seems very healthy.
Trade closed: stop reached:
No reversal after this gap fill. Instead we saw some consolidation with a breakout for a next leg higher. Likely targets 423, but 420 will be a challenge first.
be cautious of a double top!
be cautious of a double top!