AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
2083 132 44
Here I give my impression of what could happen over the course of the next few days. I added fibs from the larger dome pattern and throwback peak. When connected the .618 fib lands near 194.50. Also added clones to find where a possible target could land, and once again 194.50 is our target. In near term I do think we get a bull trap that could test the mid clone .5 area before next leg.

So in conclusion sell on Rosh Hashana continues and buy on Yom Kippur Oct             . 03/04 at 194.40/.50
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Larger picture of dome pattern with strong throwback.
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nmike MOD
2 years ago
big red candle below reds, 2 near term possibilities, down to S1 and up or breaks S1 and down to S2
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So 194.40 is a critical area. TRIX (5) and CCI (50) on daily and weekly when negative has usually given us buying signals.
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nmike MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
usually if Fisher 34 is above mid point on weekly frame then yes the dips in CCI and or Trix are long entry points
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2use nmike
2 years ago
You live you learn, thanx for the info :)
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2use nmike
2 years ago
Wait, can you please clarify - fisher 34 above mid on Weekly but CCI and TRIX on daily?
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nmike MOD 2use
2 years ago
yes, you can also use dips in Fisher daily dips as entries

snapshot
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We have yet to break past neutral when comparing Daily Fisher to Weekly
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2use QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Whats the pink fishers for ?
+2 Reply
That's a custom indicator built to show MACDL divergence with FISHER exhaustion spikes.
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2use QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
How one gets this ? Matter of fact, any advice or info on indicators depicting diversions automatically? Like the kentucky RSI one?
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You're going to have to learn pine script. I don't know of any divergent indicators in the public library.
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sublimares2 2use
2 years ago
You got a point from me for the "depicting diversions" indicator. I have seen some around here but not reliable at all. Probably the best way to approach the issue is to find the most faithful divergence indicator and train your eyes. The frenzy on TV about the automatic trading (relying totally on indicators) or semi automatic :) is cute and useless.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
idk @LazyBear is whipping up something behind the charts that is dead on.
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sublimares2 QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Why would you name Lazy`s work? He does a great job and all his scripts are free. Not sure for how long. As usual a king into changing the focus on an issue. I thought you would have been excited of the Wests indicators.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
Oh so we have a professional provocateur on our hands.

Topic: Divergence

Subject: Pine Script Coders / Programmers

Response: Insult

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2use QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Was not intended to cause a scuffle. I actually seen a divergence i think it was Knoxville Divergence, and it is actually provided at T V, but not for free...although on the web it is advertised to be available for free on other platforms.
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maccabean
2 years ago
chag sameach!
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DovCaspi maccabean
2 years ago
chag sameach! gam lecha
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DovCaspi
2 years ago
HAG SAMEAH!
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sublimares2
2 years ago
whatever yom kippur means
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO sublimares2
2 years ago
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You might be right.. building support right here
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DovCaspi sublimares2
2 years ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur
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Perfecto!
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Update

We would like to see a perfect set up, and by perfect I mean stay in the area I posted overnight and through tomorrow's open. If so we could drop from there, however this is very close and tight, and we could get a fake out to 197.88. Still believe nothing happens until we see Jobs numbers on Friday.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
what I mean by *nothing happens = reverse the current market bearish trend. If those numbers can actually deliver what theses bulls are feeding off of. If not, will see a deep drop, below my predicted outcome 194.5, and instead a drop to 190 area.

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G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
some one big has nov 190 puts for november , protective or trade , i am not sure
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G13Man G13Man
2 years ago
which is why i am charting and watching others chart the SPY
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Yeah we're getting near that kill zone. Winner take all.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Failure to hold 194.5 would imply a 100% retrace of the august rally is in store. I'm still leaning towards an initial bounce regardless with the strength of that bounce possibly determining whether a retest and failure at 194.5 will happen.
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That's a reasonable assumption. Following the pattern as a whole we still see a dome and .618 is 194.50. That's usually where we see buyers come in. Yeah, and if that rally is short lived we will see a full retrace.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Of course it seems like everyone including myself is expecting that bounce....too obvious. Maybe. I suspect we'll find out soon.
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I don't think everyone is expecting that bounce. Market would have done so already.
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Do you think we can hold up in a coil 197.30 - 199.8 by tomorrow noon?
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Tough call. I suppose that's why I'm sitting on the sideline for now. Last week my thought was a sub 196 bottom would be made for the week on tue/wed. Didn't see much to change that view...yet. A small gap up open that is faded and leads to the final push down is what I would prefer.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Looking at spx500, much different upper trend line. I don't see breaking channel for another +10. If futures get giddy over night could get a gap up open there....approx 198.5 SPY. That might set up an intriguing entry for a small put position IF it played out as such.
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198.50? that's a big move
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Yeah...not a prediction. But would play into a nice fake breakout above the down trend
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Yeah sure would. I suppose we could get up to that range or near 198.3 / 198.50. Longs would think the coast is clear.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Sorry...upper trend would be closer to spy at 198.10 for open.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
snapshot
nice clean channel so far
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I suppose there is a descending channel in the charts. I missed it.
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September Consumer Confidence released at 10:00 AM on Tuesday is expected to slip to 92.0 from 92.4 in August.

September Chicago PMI released at 9:45 AM EDT on Tuesday expected to decline to 61.5 from 64.3 in August.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Decline in PMI .. lower reading would be + .. Consumer confidence higher .. that would be a bad thing / 15 mins longs will want to always forget... they will feel pain

Lower gas prices and higher dollar = + consumer confidence historically

Markets will assume Yellen will take + consumer confidence reading as a green light for a sooner than expected "rate hike"
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2use QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Ill write this down:) We need a new forum here - OpinionView :)
+1 Reply
that's why we have message boards
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2use QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I agree on this. Oddly, some high value stocks did have indicators set up for a turning point (bottoming) .. but i would still be surprised to see 2 green days from now.
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Yeah, I've noticed them too. However on bad stocks like SHLD. Which could see a very very big short squeeze.
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SM99 took another prospective and found a descending channel pattern. I took note of his charts and added some of my own impressions. It looks like our previous run came up short of a target and we could shoot up early in the morning. If so, I'll probably join him on some puts and watch a fade or even a quick move lower after economic results come in later in the morning.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
You put any thought in what you might pick up should the above scenario play out?
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well I'm going to gamble and go with those end of month 197's fist thing in the morning. I'll roll those over into eow 195's or 194's (not so sure about the rollover yet)
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Yup. Had my eye on those as well. We get that 197.50-198.10 open and those get picked for a good price I think. A gamble for sure...but nice r/r IMO.
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lol just like last week weekly's .. another 10 bagger
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You got a plan for eow rollover play?
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
No clue. Original plan was Eow calls if 194/195 was hit tue/wed. I'd prefer to be flat into fri. So I suppose best case was a final push on tue just and just benefit from a wed/thu bounce. Possibly out thu by close. I keep thinking we would need more than just selling as a catalyst to punch through the 194 level but who knows.
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Strangle probably Thursday near close. The catalyst would be NFP Friday.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Could work and your right. When you mentioned nfp earlier I started thinking about a weak bounce off 194.50 scenarios with follow through it next week.
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SMP99 PRO SMP99
2 years ago
Weak bounce wed/thu. Fri catalyst to start moving though it
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That's what I'm thinking too.. not sure about "weak bounce"
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I guess it's all in the timing. A big push down to the 194.5 quickly on tue or wed open and I see the weak bounce/ oversold bounce. But absent that, and slower drift lower and then we are in a different scenario. Tomorrow will obviously clear it all up. :)
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if it's a big push down tomorrow to 194.5 .. we be rich
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Thats the plan right? Seriously though, I've been using the august pullback as an analogue and I believe we are approaching the bottom saw on 8/8. High near open at 193.13. Low near close at 190.55. So 197.50 open could get 194.50. Just a 1.5% move right.
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Yes, It's just been awhile since we've got two big set ups back to back end of expiration on that day
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you going to gamble on 196 Puts for tomorrows exp.?
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might fetch a penny at or near the open if we gap up to 198 and hit 198.1 in first few mins
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Thought about that too. We get that 198 open and I might grab some as my lotto for day.
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196's 500 for a .01 and sell them for 1.85 / 1.90

197's 100 for .04 - .05 and sell them for 2.60 / 2.70
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130k - 140k payday
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
What could go wrong?
+1 Reply
Look for possible hangups supports that might stick and carry it to close
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Alternatively I could see half that move tue, with gap down open wed. Still within my original scenario of tue/wed s/t bottom.
+1 Reply
well if that's your thought.. better to stick with 197's with higher open of 198 tomorrow.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Yeah I think 197 is primary play. If 196's is .01 then yes I'll grab those too. Not sure on sizing yet. .05 @197 would be great...not sure 198 open gets that though.
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Whta's the current IV?
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on the discussion of 196's .. we might not see that until close. If it at all hangs up through lunch. Those 196's won't make you as much as 197's
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7.85 to 8.15 IV and 198.09 gets you .05 on those 197 Puts
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I'll take that. For .05 @ 198.09 I'll skip the 196's and focus 197.
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Yeah, at that price and IV you'll probably fill 196's for .02

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move will probably happen at or near 10am
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and that move might only get us to 196.10 or close
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Your think about going for more ? I am too , might go 1k on each if for .01 and .05
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for me it could go either way... big jump or big dump
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Always good to be prepared if support breaks.
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2use QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
You lost me on the purple dotted line
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You have to zoom in on minute charts, you'll find a key support, and two gaps that both were tested and retested. I'd say that purple ascending line is crucial.
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Zoomed in for you. You can see pivot point with extended ascending line (both in purple). Lower line captures test and retest after gap up failures.
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G13Man
2 years ago
So many nice charts to reference here ,
so here is the present 3 % drop compared to some other past drops on SPY
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If 166 or 164.5 don't catch, we could be looking at 6 to 7% decline.
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G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
from September high of 202.
Gap @ 166.23 = 21% drop
Gap @ 152.82 = 32.01 %
Gap @ 142.74 = 42.38 %
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Oh there's got to be more gaps than that
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G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
was looking for Gaps in the weekly time frame , none
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G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
i was taught go by the whole day , a wick can fill
,
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That's not a wick.. it's a part of the chart tool.
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G13Man G13Man
2 years ago
the good news , the 142.74 is the lowest gap .

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you have to remember red bottom is the close
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G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
but during the day was as high
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G13Man G13Man
2 years ago
but during the day was as high
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G13Man G13Man
2 years ago
but during the day . wick.was as high
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The top is the open... the bottom is close. So if the next candle is green and gapped, without a tweezer fill that's a gap or partial gap fill if tweezer partially fills.
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G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
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4 cent gap
i was taught go by the WHOLE day , a wick can fill

so you say the green line ?
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+1 Reply
It's what happens over night and in the morning. You take the point of close 4 pm est. and if the next candle is up or down than previous days close 4 pm est. / without a test during the course of next day.... 9:30 est to 4 pm .. this is a gap
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G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
okay. thanks ,
you gotta good exchange going on over your chart :-)
+1 Reply
Charts... I'm all over the place
+1 Reply
Still working out well!
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
still like your 194.48 target as a low? Might be there soon.
+1 Reply
Yup . Good signals / trendlines on this charts
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
absolutely. been pretty spot on.
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2use QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
We will hit it definitely...but i am not sure of a bounce - seems that many large cap stocks are showing divergences and going down in prices - i wonder if their slides one by one get us lower past 194...causing an avalanche. IWM already was called to have peaked and going down.
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SMP99 PRO 2use
2 years ago
i guess lot depends on what we might call a bounce. I see that level JR has being pretty important and very possible we only bounce for just a couple days. Would work off some s/t oversold readings and allow for slide to 191.
+1 Reply
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Did you have 195.10 as your target?
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I have a range based on several different setups. From 194.80-195. I see no reason why can't go down and hit 194.50.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
in fact, a break in LOD seems as though push right through the 194.8
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
194.93 was a target from the H&S pattern that broke down today
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2use SMP99
2 years ago
And "there she blows"....
+1 Reply
Target hit. I'm going to stick with my call and say this is the low
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Any thoughts on how long this low might last?
+1 Reply
Hopefully until near close.
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2use SMP99
2 years ago
I suspect that it may retract on days end, tomorrow be a sideways-green day, not go lower than todays low and go up....IF it goes lower than 194-193, i calls a large bearish move
+1 Reply
SMP99 PRO 2use
2 years ago
sounds quite reasonable.
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Outside Linear Regression channel. I'm buying soon
+1 Reply
SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
i picked up some EOW calls a bit ago
+1 Reply
IV is so high now.
+1 Reply
G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
but it is not Yom Kipur yet
+1 Reply
OK so we're off by a few hours / day.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
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+1 Reply
Buyers are coming in.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
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+1 Reply
Target hit. Now if we can get this IV down... options too expensive
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2use SMP99
2 years ago
Is that a positive RSI divergence at the end i see?
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snapshot


Looking for targets
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