jmboyer1

2014 SPY H&S Top (?) Characteristics/Similarities to 2007 Top

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
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NOTE: This is just a possibility I'm looking at to determine the how/when/where/why of a possible top.

2014 SPY             H&S Top (?) Characteristics/Similarities to 2007 Top:
-Massive rising/ascending wedge from 2009             low
-1st breakout of wedge is tip-off ref. mkt topping soon; returns to rest on upper trendline
-2nd move remains above upper trendline until it penetrates
and bounces off lower wedge trendline (establishes neckline and LEFT SHOULDER)
-3rd bounce forms head and returns to lower trendline (i.e. neckline)---this is the HEAD NOTE: Head still forming...prob. a few more weeks (2-5?) until top of head.
-4th (and final) bounce established RIGHT SHOULDER and returns to lower trendline (i.e. neckline) and readies to break-down NOTE: Not started yet

NOTE (28FEB14): Looks like we may have put in the top of the head today...if so, would look for strong distribution next week with target of neckline (prob. around 172.7 area)

NOTE (9MAR14): Well, it's put up or shut-up time for any H&S formation. Looking very mature right now....last Friday close was not great and continued fear/volatility ref. Ukraine could negatively affect mkts this week.....still all the "ingredients" for a H&S in place and sectors looking toppy             , also....so, should be soon.
Also, the "Head" of the H&S looks very well developed...as if we're at the very top of the head....R2K, S&P             , NAZ             and NYSE also look the same w/look as if we're at the top of the head. Only indice that does NOT is DJIA             ...but, in past research Dow continued a bit higher after NAZ/S&P topped, so TBD. Given strength in VIX             lately, think we're primed for a breakdown in the markets...but the markets will do what they want, so will watch/wait/observe.
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