goodguy

SPY Is it about to turn down?

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
I like the RSI as an indicator. I was looking at the chart of the SPY             and as I have often observed, major drops often occur with a bearish divergence in the RSI and the RSI weekly failing to reach 70 before turning down. Notice this pattern in 2000 and 2007 in the SPY             . We have that same situation now. Of course prices could keep going up and overcome this. But not a bad set up for a fall. I then I looked at the price action from about 2007 to 2012 as a large inverse H&S and it gives a projected target (the way I view it ) to where price is now. Many have observed we have a rising wedge which is supposed to be bearish and prices are at the top of the wedge . I noticed the spacing between the previous large drops was similar. Using the time function with the arrows I was amazed to see we are almost at the same number of days now as between the two previous drops. I did not check this to the day but just drew the arrows. Personally I am not sure of the significance of this but found it interesting. Finally and least important I drew the pitchfork . I put the left tail end on the first day of data I have and to my surprise it looks there would be resistance right where we are. Again I don't know the significance of this but it sure looks nice.

I would not trade on this chart but I find it very interesting and hope you will too. I personally will not be surprised to see the start of a major down turn in the next week to month or so. Will wait for a sign be before jumping in. Take care.
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