TB11741
Short

SPY Monthly / Summary of potential risks to a pullback

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
143 2 2

Every 6-7 years a change in Market direction is normal and repeated since 1994


1994-2001

2008- 2015

2015 -2021


2015-2021

*Can be the years where the economy gets ahead of the market with fluffy headline data, which is followed by ripple effects of plunging oil             and commodities .

*Consumers could get overconfident and Retail investors start chasing the market thinking they are missing the boat. At the same time, Smart money recognizes the imbalance of supply and demand and unleashes their shares on the market.

* Record margin debt starts to unwind and Momentum darlings and cult stocks are the 1st to get hit the hardest.


*Oils decline begins to have an impact on the job numbers and euphoria finally starts to subside.

* Markets are blindsided and a 10-15 pcnt pullback occurs. The media joins in and begins questioning the policies of Central banks throughout the last 6 - 7 years.

* Obama's presidency is in the 9th inning and media starts to turn against him and his policies.

* New President arrives, blames Obama and easy money policy from the fed

* Black Swan Event occurs (new war in Middle East ) ( Debt crisis in US Energy Markets ) (Chinese Real Estate market collapse and recession )(Russian creates conflict which EU loses control of)

* Market sells off 10 - 20 pcnt, but creates another amazing opportunity to buy great companies at oversold levels
let me see if I got this right, the market can go up strongly, it can go down strongly, it can go down moderately and then go up strongly?
Reply
TB11741
2 years ago
Upside from these levels seem limited considering the current wave seems impulsive and far from every healthy trendline.

I believe we will see a melt up through the holidays and some point in the 1st qtr get a decent pullback. I am more focused on shorting momentum cult stocks and using the indexes more as hedges and a gauge on sentiment

I am new and encourage any constructive criticism. Only been trading for lil over a year
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