SPY: Week of July 8

Steversteves Updated   
Hey everyone,

Messy, messy, messy. We continue to only ever go up.
As of now, SPY broke out to the upside (with a caveat that I will get into in a second). We are above all thresholds, 3 month and 6 month, with the high prob 560 target right within reach.
I don’t really have any doubts that we are snagging this 6 month target first (the 560), before we can even contemplate downside. And with the breakout, the move is still up. We may only get one more good day of upside and then chop for a bit, but its still upside after the chop concludes.

And with us being almost at ATHs again in terms of actively open short positions, the bears assured SPY of continued upside.

Most things made new ATHs, inclusive of META. NVDA struggling, but this seasonally is a really bad month for NVDA, so I won’t really long it as a substitute for other things.

The caveat I wanted to quickly mention is the complete absence of volume that has been driving these “breakout” moves. Plotting the weekly buy vs sell volume, this is what we have:

For the past month, we have had like below average volume. And as of this week, we see sellers (orange) crossing above the 14 period SMA of selling volume and buyers falling below.

Now, absent really conclusive volume, the bias continues to be up. But the question is why is there so little volume? Perhaps big money is stepping away from things. Perhaps whales are just watching their profits accumulate before the exit. Who knows, but its something to keep note of.

As long as the volume remains low, then its just a continued chop up with the occasional “pseudo breakout” when all of the low volume traders are all bulls.

I do think we are approaching a temporary top, however this will be post the high probs at 560 (in my opinion).

In general, my expectations are we continue up, snag the 560s, maybe up to 570s, we see a pseudo correction back down to that 537 high prob target, and then we continue up into EOY.
I’ve said it in another post, but just to remind you, my overall expectation / target price on SPY for the year is around 601, with my guestimate of a closing range in the high 550s – 570s, based on historical ATRs and the 6 month TP levels on SPY.

Anyway, the levels are in the chart above. Red zones are the range caps. Last week, SPY got rejected at the range cap EOD on Friday, so pay close attention to those.

Otherwise, it should be smooth sailing for bulls. I was long all week last week and continue to be long via UPRO (which, if you read my recent post, I should have went SPYU … ah well).
Will begin the exiting process at 560.

Also, ARIMA levels are in the chart as well.

Safe trades everyone!

Notice how the PA is an absolute nightmare?

Yeah, this is topping with a perogative to achieve i.e. TP of 560.
I'm not even sure how its managing with the lack of buying, to maintain these levels, it seems like everyone is waiting for that one final pulse up, but yeah, its pretty dier here. There are no buyers, they're gone.

So we are just waiting for the profit taking to happen at this point (post one of these many catalysts). Still long on it but not even giving it the time of day intra-day because its impossible to trade intra-day when its just a bunch of people sitting on their hands waiting to take their profits.

Be careful with this one if you're long like me, because I think once the profit taking happens, it will be quick and may be exacerbated by the bulls attempting to buy dips and then stopping out.

I'm out completey at 560 because I have a ton of sell signals flashing everywhere and the PA kind of confirms it for me. Just my opinion though.
Trade closed: target reached:

Now we wait for confirmation.
Oh man,
Did I honestly call a top?

I would be careful here. I am short via SPXS but this market has honestly scared the bear right out of me.

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