LONG but tough spot here, it could very well be choppy sideways
Targets: 6.7% P vs 1.6% L with an initial P/L ratio of 2.0; revisit at 188.67 and 190 levels to cover.
Reasoning
SENTIMENT:
Positive talks (Goldman Sachs statement, Oil talks between countries) shifted sentiment and EU markets (STOXX 600 up ~2.5% at the moment) are backing a sentiment shift stocktwits.com/feczo/message/49480530 OIL futures are up 2% as I write this. I would also consider the TGF: ie the The Grandma Factor, when everybody even your grandma starts to talk about how bad the market is and sell sell sell, but it has been like this for a while it is probably time to go against the herd mentality.
FUNDAMENTALS (with a grain of salt)
I have no good take on this at the moment, ultimately nothing is much more broken than it always was, it is risky CDS rises in bonds for example but it is doable to get through these times without folding. We have seen a great price correction in QQQ and XLF. I can only talk for tech from memory but apart from LNKD I do not remember huge disappointment, GOOG, FB, AAPL delivered. OIL and commodities like DJP were also taking the beating for the past few weeks on oversupply concerns, but supply/demand meets at some point.
TECHNICALS (disclaimer I was not active for a few months, maybe few things are off :)
Well honestly this is a sideways indecision/consolidation after heavy volume selling,
its trading the approx. 185 - 195 horizontal channel with big nervous swings. However
notice the volume and money flow, the selling pressure eased significantly
while the swings towards the bottom are the same: divergence. Pure price action might
provide the bears confidence, but I would be more and more cautious to go short here, not
a great Risk/Reward either also its clearly hovering on resistance that held at least three times
in the past few weeks. It is possible that the 190 area provides significant resistance the Ichimoku Cloud
is also warning about this. If that happens it can continue sideways for a while or even break for the
downside depending on the changes in the above two other major drivers (fundamentals, sentiment)
Reasoning
SENTIMENT:
Positive talks (Goldman Sachs statement, Oil talks between countries) shifted sentiment and EU markets (STOXX 600 up ~2.5% at the moment) are backing a sentiment shift stocktwits.com/feczo/message/49480530 OIL futures are up 2% as I write this. I would also consider the TGF: ie the The Grandma Factor, when everybody even your grandma starts to talk about how bad the market is and sell sell sell, but it has been like this for a while it is probably time to go against the herd mentality.
FUNDAMENTALS (with a grain of salt)
I have no good take on this at the moment, ultimately nothing is much more broken than it always was, it is risky CDS rises in bonds for example but it is doable to get through these times without folding. We have seen a great price correction in QQQ and XLF. I can only talk for tech from memory but apart from LNKD I do not remember huge disappointment, GOOG, FB, AAPL delivered. OIL and commodities like DJP were also taking the beating for the past few weeks on oversupply concerns, but supply/demand meets at some point.
TECHNICALS (disclaimer I was not active for a few months, maybe few things are off :)
Well honestly this is a sideways indecision/consolidation after heavy volume selling,
its trading the approx. 185 - 195 horizontal channel with big nervous swings. However
notice the volume and money flow, the selling pressure eased significantly
while the swings towards the bottom are the same: divergence. Pure price action might
provide the bears confidence, but I would be more and more cautious to go short here, not
a great Risk/Reward either also its clearly hovering on resistance that held at least three times
in the past few weeks. It is possible that the 190 area provides significant resistance the Ichimoku Cloud
is also warning about this. If that happens it can continue sideways for a while or even break for the
downside depending on the changes in the above two other major drivers (fundamentals, sentiment)