I'm bullish and bearish on SPY, depending on the timeframe
As extended as SPY is to the upside bulls remain in full control . Loss of the 1h trend over the past 7 weeks has always been a bear trap and an unreliable signal, so I'm personally watching the 4hr trend as the signal that consolidation is coming. I'm bullish SPY short term until that signal is given - Bullish, but very CAUTIOUS and not rushing to jump into any positions "up here".
Longer term, I'm bearish on SPY. We just had a bearish 100/200 day MA cross, and looking at 21 historical cases we saw a new low/ retest / retracement 95% of the time, and a significant retracement 80% of the time. I believe there's enough historical data here to warrant caution on 2019.
That said, there will be lots of opportunities for technical analysts to profit both bullish and bearish even if we do see a significant retracement that history suggests is likely.
Longer term, I'm bearish on SPY. We just had a bearish 100/200 day MA cross, and looking at 21 historical cases we saw a new low/ retest / retracement 95% of the time, and a significant retracement 80% of the time. I believe there's enough historical data here to warrant caution on 2019.
That said, there will be lots of opportunities for technical analysts to profit both bullish and bearish even if we do see a significant retracement that history suggests is likely.