BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
1309 49 8
The monthly chart is setting up for an ominous outlook approaching. Nothing is confirmed yet, but longer term holding's should be looked at for potential exit signals. Swing and day trades should be fine. Keep an eye on it in case the worst develops, but I'm staying with the daily which say's we are ok for now.
How do you choose your entry points ?
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Well it depends on my time frame for the trade. My style is geared more toward's swing trades, but always on the hunt for longer term opportunities - the best are obviously when the world is ending, but that scenario isn't reflected in the markets right now. Keeping an eye on the monthly and weekly to see how the longer term may pan out (next 8-18 months).

For my entries on swing's, I use a combination of EMA cross overs (daily chart = 5 or 8 crossing above 13 EMA, 30 minute or lower chart = 5 or 8 crossing above 34 EMA). Keep in mind, for the best result from the cross over, the cross should occur during a short term up trend... typically means it is likely to continue once the cross occurs. Combine this with RSI, MACD, and %R indicator analysis, and the fibonacci retracement clusters for entry zones. Also, symmetry or "measured move" analysis is a good addition.

I'll post more chart's describing the above with examples for clarity. Describing entries is always a case by case, but the base strategy for any trader should still apply.
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Algokid PRO MainStInvesting
Thank you for replying. looking forward to see more of your charts
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dimes Algokid
Thanks Kid I always see interesting charts and ideas by following you I like that you are into intermarket work as well. Where did you learn or who do you attribute your knowledge base too.In other words is there any one particular person that you learned from.
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Hello Dimes

I read a lot of books of trading and finance in general. But the books that helped me shape my trading strategies are : "Trend Following" by Michael Covel, and the "Ivy Porfolio" by Mebane Faber. Learning about relative strength ranking/market time and trend following was a real eye opener for me. The strategies are simple AND profitable. I enjoy charts such like yours and this one, that help investors pick the right time to invest and stay on the sideline. I'm always learning new things from the users here, and make sure to share any info that might help anyone here. This a great community. :)
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Great chart, I was reading the method or style of your trading and I have many similarities when it comes to trading, I look at multiple time frames and wait for a signal on the smaller time frame before I enter a trade, I use Fib clusters, and Measured moves off those clusters that I use for minimum expectation fib. projection to take initial profit and always keep at least half of my trade open for a bigger move unless Indicators,pattern recognition break down or call for a correction where I can book profit and sell or buy at a better price.....I am also a big believer in Correlations and always know what the risk currencies are doing compared to the S&P, As well as copper ,yields, bond prices,usdx, oil for the most part. I read an article on your page that says sometimes correlations matter...I believe that the markets have been so correlated in the last few years they tell you a great deal when they are correlating and when they are (diverging) Such as risk currencies and s&p they almost always show major reversals in trends and most of the time at fib clusters....I believe one of my recent charts shows what I am talking about as I was short the S&P and currency markets started to move up the yesterday they closed in on the s&p on a percentage basis especially the euro,which definitely was a warning to tighten up your trades and watch for a pending reversal and look for minor fib cluster supports to be broken. I use Elliott Wave as well
and the reason I love it so much is it gives me minimum expectations by pattern and an objective approach, where I can set stops and initial take profits. I believe people get to caught up with the academics and exact wave counts when all you have to do is count to 5's and 3's(look at the s&p five waves down and at least a minor 3 wave correction has started with minimum expectations using EW and Fib projections) Intermarket Analysis gave a warning trend was in for at least a minor correction,I believe a chart of mine shows that. Sorry for the long write up but this is the only place I get to shre my ideas and hopefully get feed back. I am really interested in using moving averages, which I do not so any comments and advice would be appreciated.Using Fibs you must know the work of Caroline(Fibonacci Queen) I am assuming. thanks in advance.
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dimes,

I am certainly familiar with Carolyn's work. I subscribe to Real Money (not Real Money Pro), and she contributes daily setup material there, as well as her main site. I'm actually reading her book currently, but I've been familiar with Fibonnaci patterns and setups for some time now, and I've continued to incorporate components of it in my trading style. I have enjoyed her style and presentation of writing, making it simple and quick to understand her thought process.

Since you've checked out my site, I recommend going to the "Resources" page found at- http://mainstinvesting.blogspot.com/p/resources.html - to find all sorts of other material I've read, some I follow consistently, and other information is simply for knowledge building.

I follow many indicator's as well as you mentioned. Currencies, bonds, copper, Brent/WTI/ASCI spots and futures (ASCI is where Saudi oil is pegged), Nat Gas, metals, 321 Crack spreads, Transports, SOX, VIX, etc. Of course, not all indicators matter as much as others on certain days or seasons, just providing some insight into other things I look at.

I would add Gap analysis to one of my most used strategies, especially for index trades and moves. The S&P Futures market is one of the most important when it comes to Gap filling and determining near term movements (from my experience). I have quite a few posts on my site about that, and more will certainly come.

Not sure if you are on Twitter or StockTwits... if so, sharing idea's with notable investor's is rather easy on those platforms. I'll follow your work as well as I like your charts.
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dimes MainStInvesting
Thanks for the feed back I will definitely use your resource page and I agree with you 100%. I took a quick view definitely looking forward to checking out the resource page...
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great sight well done with a lot of info and a lot of great reads. Michael luis is a favorite just because he can turn life into a great story and you get educated on the way. I was reading many different things but if you have not already it would be nice to see john murphy's name and his book's on the list. And I also agree with you about following S&P futures market as well and when I am setting up a currency trade I believe the futures are are more relavent than spot. I will be a regular on your sight. quick question do you have or are you in the process of getting a CMT Certificate and do you think there is a great benifit in it.
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I update the Resources page probably once or twice a month, and yes I will be adding John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis and other technical analysis related books soon (I keep a running list of items through each week and then decide about what to add to hopefully make it an valuable as possible). When I first started it, my audience seemed to be looking for just general investing knowledge, but as I Tweeted and "hinted" at more information about charts and technical analysis in my posts, I received more questions about it, so that has been something I'm working on - incorporating more technical analysis into my posts and more resources on the site. Considering I'm much more geared toward the charts and technicals, it's been great to find more reader's who are interested in it.

As for the CMT, no I don't have the certificate, but I am strongly considering taking the first exam to see how it goes. I think it has value, and certainly provides more credibility. However, I don't think it's absolutely necessary to get it - it just depends on one's circumstances and their career path.

Thanks for the feedback on the site. I'll add more content this week/weekend on the Resources page. If you have any site's, books, or tools you wish to share, let me know. I'm always on the search for valuable resources.
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Thanks there are a few sights and books ill send you a short list, as far as the CMT, I agree it is not a must but would bring credibility as far as certain jobs or if your thinking about investing peoples money. Thanks
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agreed, downside has higher chance these days I would not be comfortable before a more significant market correction is played out and new qe is announced, Europe sorting would be cream on top, but we all know that is unlikely that any agreement occurs as long as the standpoint of Germany is more nationalistic (fair enough I would not want to pay for someone else's mess either) than European and Greece and others are more slack on policies. I anticipate this game of back and forth between stimulus and global slowdown is going to last for a good few more years (hence this roller coaster up and down ride on markets as well) until real solution comes or collapse to reset things and start with a clean sheet.
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republish?
SPY MONTHLY
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WOW ! you see , I don't mind people republishing my chart, but at least this guy could of mentioned that he took it from another member. What a troll
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SubZero Algokid
yeah not nice at all .. unless it is the same person with different names, but i do not think so
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Yea I don't know who "wbrteam" is. I thought if someone republished this chart it would automatically provide the source... apparently it didn't.

And on a side note, my comment in the chart should read "The 13 month MA may be crossing below the 21 month" instead of the opposite. Brain fart on my side, but either case, it present's the potential cross.

wbrteam should have caught that and fixed it in their republish! They should take note when taking someone else's chart - understand it first. haha
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admin PRO MainStInvesting
Guys, thank you for noticing this. We unpublished all replica charts from this account because non of them added any additional value.
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I was inspired to do a monthly chart view as well here is the result:
Market is struggling to hold up here
hope you like it comments are welcome
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there's also a giant symmetrical triangle from 2008. in my limited daytrading experience those end with mega moves.
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Do you know where QE1/2+Twist show on this chart?
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Looks like it's forming a grand-daddy of a head and shoulders pattern.
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That is very possible. I suppose we will see how it plays out. Because it's the monthly chart, more will show by the end of 2012.
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Interesting article from Streettalklive.com :

http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1061-major-sell-signal-triggered.html
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Very interesting. They are using more sensitive MA's than my 13 and 21 month which is why they noted that 9 false signal's occurred and 51 confirmations with their MA cross overs (that is since 1930, so that's quite a track record). One reason I like the monthly chart with these MA's is they produce "major" sell signal's off of major tops. Though there are only 2 shown, they did mark the 2001 drop and the 2008 drop, just prior to the real collapses. We still need a few more months to confirm the current projection, but as of right now, it's setting up to fulfill the downward move. If the cross does occur, within 4-5 months, we should see confirmation. The QE3 possibility puts all of it in question - but then again, the chart's are much more reliable than some "potential" event. It's best just to be aware of the scenario's in play, trade through it, and manage your risk according to your comfort levels.
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