$ES_F $SPY - Monthly Chart

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A lot of traders getting bullish off this move. Taking a step back and looking at the monthly. This appears to be classic distribution and cause for caution. 161.8 fib from the 2009 low and a shallow retracement considering this huge move. Let's look at the chart:

- Top of the TL is ~209.12, but appears to have formed a triangle. (Open gap at 61.8 or 195 area)
- Declining volume w/ sell volume > buy volume .
- RSI declining - lower highs and lows
- Macd hist (-) , but looks like rounding bottom (temporarily?)
- Slow STO appears to be putting in a lower high
- CMF             indicates money flowing out from US equities
- Bollingers are the narrowest since 2006, which indicates a sharp move coming either way

Global economies are slowing causing rate cuts and easing, but doesn't appear to be effective. QE 1,2,3 are gone w/ QE 4 on the horizon? IMO             , announcement of QE 4 would trigger selling as it points to extreme weakness and inability to raise rates. Saw heavy institutional trades on Friday in the 207-207.51 area. Bullish above, bearish below.

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