livingtrancefully
Short

History repeats. Everything is psychological.

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
89 10 1
Couldn't be more clear what's going to happen this year. It's 2007.
The accum/distrub top of the 5-year bull market.

Just like 2002-2007.
Do you have other evidence? I like what you are thinking, I'd like to see more! Thanks in advance. Tim
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I like the divergence analysis. It's a great setup.
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Interesting idea, but I don't know how much I'd bet on a sample size of two or 3 only.

This monthly, shows, it's still a long
snapshot


As does the weekly
snapshot
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livingtrancefully HermanBrummer
Why don't you look at any other market that puts in this signal during a bubble expanding wedge? I have a sample size of 1000s :)
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livingtrancefully HermanBrummer
you do realize those fancy moving averages you have held the price up perfectly in 2007? then we made the final high after the bounce

eventually it will correct to those lines again, and then make a new high around 1950/2000 is my guess. then start of a bear market or at least 20% correction
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markets are technical. the more liquid a market is, the more technically it trades.

i don't need other evidence. but why dont you look at NYSE margin debt
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livingtrancefully livingtrancefully
leverage is at record highs, more than 2008
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livingtrancefully livingtrancefully
2007*
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Everyone makes mistakes. We needed a close above the highs not just a pierce, for divergence to be valid. However, bearish hidden divergence requires a close below.

Hidden divergence creates

I'm up 170% the last 3 months so I don't really care about a little draw down.
I play with small positions and build bigger as the correction becomes obvious.
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livingtrancefully livingtrancefully
its worked every time. 1690, 1850, 1890

all decent corrections, although nothing major.

suspect at least another 5% correction from 1950. but eventually will get the inevitable 10% correction as valuation gets worse and momentum trails off.
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