MarketSwingPlayer
Long

Alert - SPY is getting close to the trend-line

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
682 74 0
Alert - SPY             is getting close to the trend-line. Price normally change direction on trend line touch. 4th Attempt to go above resistance, we can breakout too. Monday will be an exciting day.
KevinT
3 years ago
Hi bro. The SPX touched the upper line already.

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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Thanks, I was concerned about my upper trend-line on the SPY chart. Can you draw the trend-line for me on a daily chart and attach. Cheers Thanks for looking out. We need to help each other.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Maybe misunderstand, but that is the daily chart.

PS: notice the RSI isn't OB now. The previous tops RSI got in OB.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
I noticed price touched on the S&P futures chart. Price can still breakout but need to be careful
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Alert: Watch Out when we get to $174.60 Possible upper trend line reversal, tighten stops. http://stks.co/ipyk
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KevinT
3 years ago
Hardly noticeable on daily chaart and of no use for dat traders. Negative divergence on weekly chart.

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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
I mean daily chart and day traders. Rapid typing errors :P
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Thanks so much. You Rock!
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KevinT
3 years ago
I'm currently looking at 2 channels. Some people include spikes/shadows. Some excludes it. I put both in one chart. The blue line, which include spikes shows a trend break out. The red one, which exclude the shadows, shows a resistance. Combined with the not OB RSI, I think we can conclude there is no evidence for a reversal now.....

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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Love it, Excellent chart. I think we have a little more upside, but may pullback next week. I will watch price action to confirm my thoughts. When I think I lose. When I just pay attention to price action I win. lol Looking for doji and then red candle to confirm pull back. We may break out who knows. Cheers.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
There is surely a chance to break out the channel in this attempt. 3 times test top. 3 times test bottom. 3th test bottom failed. Now 4th attempt to break the top with a bullish RSI. Monday will be a VERY exciting day!!!!!
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
You rock, I love your analysis. I agree with you. Let's make some money. lol :D
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Plus we are in a wedge and price is getting squeezed. I agree with you. Usually 3rd test is successful, if Price is rejected we may go down hard. :)
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
I'm thinking about triggers to push the index high or get it rejected.

Bullish are:
Yellen the printer lady as new FED chairwoman
No sign for October tapering (till the next meeting)
Lower US GDP forcast which support no October tapering
China's growth revival....well at least that's whta they claim.....
Debt ceiling can got kicked forward. So we live another weeks.

Bearish
Negative outlook for US by a French and down grade Chinese rating agency. Well, both are small agencies and a eventually down grade is conditional. The condition is solved for now.
Lower GDP forecast.
Possible December taper (then January, Feb., March....and so on).

A iminent trigger will be the corporate earnings and outlook. Untill now, these are mixed.
Also, the (un)employment nrs that are comming out will play a mayor role as for day trading.
Two uncertain factors which may cause daytraders a heart attack.
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sunny KevinT
3 years ago
Hi guys, just to add to this Kevin. Non farm payrolls will be Tuesday morning. Will that affect equities? Great charts from both of you. Thanks for the insight.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
Seems like bad news is good news to SPY Mean more QE. It rally on good news and bad new. Go figure. More money pumped in to equities. Thanks. Let's see what Monday bring. Most people still Bullish SPY and price action look bullish so far. Major day Monday, see will watch price action to see what happen. imo
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Low Payroll is bullish for SPY. Let's see Tuesday. Think trend line most important thing right now. Saw 2 2 mil purchase block trades after hours on Fri, so money is still being pumped into SPY at the top.
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sunny MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
thanks for the note about the purchase you saw on Friday. I don't get this anywhere else. I hope you're not up in the middle of the night looking at this like me!
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
Your welcome, I went to bed early and got up for a few minutes then back to bed. Cheers.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
If payroll bad dips may be bought. need to see price action first to be safe. Going back to bed. lol
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
I certainly agree with the wegde. Look at NASDAQ OMG. But also tkae into consideration that Dow didn't have thee same rally as SP500 and NDAQ. So I think investors pushed their money in SP500 and NDAQ instead of Dow. Which may have caused the wedge.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Thanks for your analysis. You are very intelligent. I hope we break out, but if not I will short. Would be nice if price can scream to at least $176. Cheers :D
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Another observation is looking at the heiken ashi trend candles. The last candle was very bullish and notice not one red candle showing sign of weakness compared to last rally.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Yes. I do use Heiken Ashi as an alternative as well and I can't see any reversal candle on timeframe till 1 hour neither. All the TF above 1h is bullish. Only the 1h candle makes a bearish harami. With the last hour before weekend, this candle can be rejected.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Thanks, I love talking to you. You must be rich. Cheers. I will be rich too. If I can keep making sound decisions.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
No. As a trader I suck. Too much emtional involvement and too little rationality. Still working on this issue.
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
That's why I prefer to make my analysis in the weekend. Markets closed. Clear mind. Clear thinking.
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Have trouble not taking profits on my positions and sitting on my hands. With the thought take profit now and buy back later and cheaper, I let the major part of the profit potential go.
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Too much greed.....want to take every penny but let the pound go.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
I can call price action pretty good most of the time now. That was my problem, direction of price. Now that is solved. Just found out I have a new problem, the mental side of trading. I did a long strangle on Goog and noticed my acct was up 5k on the open. I panicked big time. I never made 5 k overnight before. So I started thinking about the times I was up 1 k only to be down by end of day $500 and got scared. So I sold at the open and took the money instead of placing a trailing stop. My two calls went up another 5k. I panicked when trying to sell. Tried mkt order then software said I need to do limit order before 10 am. So my $200 calls 950 & 960 I paid about $1 per contract and on Friday went up to $50 - $59 a contract or $12000 for both. My problem was greed, so I just figured up 5 k overnight take the money. Next time I will plan on what to do the night before when I long strangle PCLN
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Yes. Same problem here. The greatest enemy of a trader....is the trader him self.

I loaded my account with long futures Dow on 30 and 31 December. Closed it in the late afternoon on the 2nd of Jan 2013. Because of the price explosion, I expected a small pull back so I can buy it back. The small pull back didn't come and I missed a fortune......
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Success traders failed and learned from their mistakes. When I trade what I think, I am normally wrong and lose money. I am aware of that now. So I look at my chart to confirm price action and channels
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Successful traders
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Yes have the same problem too. Greed kills profits. So now I say take the money. If price go up don't worry you was successful and in the green. Move on to next trade. If we could just do that we have no limits
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Let me tell you my greatest greed failure. I entred last low on GBPUSD for a bullish trend reversal....took profit at a very very early stage for a tiny pull back to re-enter....
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
It went on climbing above my imagination. My max was a bullish wolf wave, which I considered not likely. It even passed that point. I could smash my head to the wall for that....
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
We are just scared of failure. We need to learn how to ride a great position. I need to do more planning before trading begin. Need to know what to do if price go up or down during trading hours. Leave emotions alone.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
One thing I learned about watching price action within a channel SPY: If bounce of top and bottom of channels two times, the third time usually price will start testing the channel up and down. When see that happen the 4th time may be a breakout or breakdown and price direction will change up or down
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
4 times test is less common.
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Let me show you something more. This is a 4h chart of SP500 cfd (compairable withh futures). Last candle did make a pull back but landed precisely on my upper resistance channel line. This is a sign the market is still bullish.

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/909725/sp500-dec13-h4-safecap-investments-ltd

Monday is decisive. I went short Friday night bc it retraced. But again, that was a trade based on emotion instead of sound rationality.
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Looking at the daily, that shadow can be a perfect overshoot for a pul back.
Now based on sound rationality, it was better to ait for Monday afternoon to enter. Better safe then sorry.

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/909738/sp500-dec13-d1-safecap-investments-ltd
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Something I just noticed. The gap. The odds are bullish now.

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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Very nice charts, I agree. I was counting the gap up as a bullish sign as well. Other charts noticed how price is sitting right above trend-line. I still have some calls. I hope we gap up on Monday. lol I kept the calls because I thought the price action on 15 - 30 min chart was very strong.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
In that case, good for you. I'll have a busy day Monday O.o
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
noticed how price is sitting right above trend-line on chart. like now this is support and that was the past. lol Your good, let's prep before trade day, I think the sky is the limit for us. We still have more up ticks.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Just be carefull for Monday. It's a new week and things went up on a really fast pace last 2 weeks.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Yes I agree, thanks
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Love it. That is what I tell my self to sell. I can always buy it back cheaper. The mental side is a challenge, but we recognize our problem so it can be fixed. And we are taking action
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
As for the weekly Heiken Ashi, the next candle is decisive. Will this week candle make a bullhorn like double top or a continuation of bullish trend. If it makes a double top, then there is a great odd the negative divergence will kick in and the drop will be hudge....
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
OMG Looked at the weekly and noticed avg min candles in weekly trend is 3. Week 1 we are already near trend-line. We may see a breakout.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Yep. But hace to be really carefull with Heiken Ashi as it's candles smooth things out (have a look at the underlying formula, you can find it easily with Google). With short term charts, it's a nice method. But with weekly, the bias/swing can be big which can cause unpleasant surprises if you use high leverage derivatives.

Also, the price action has been more choppy recently. Just compare the last few HA candles with the eralier series.

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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Personally, I prefer HA on daily.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Thanks, yes I usually just use candle sticks so I can see fear and greed. You are correct HA is to determine trend mostly. Cheers. Talk to you later, I am addicted to market and need to step away.
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
And I'm all confused now. Price action says down. Other factors say up :P
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Better go relax. Looking for a movie to download.
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KevinT KevinT
3 years ago
Found one: "White House Down".

Definately bearish LOL!
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
lol
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Yes can make all those patterns, great thinking. Can't wait for Monday. Let me get away from these charts and get a life. lol
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
More food for thought

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State of the Market as of 10/19/2013 http://chartyourtrade.com/2013/10/state-market-10192013/
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sunny MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
did you guys get short yet? chart looks good but what about volume and orders?
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
Not planning on going short, I am still long waiting to see price action dictate short opp.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
To scary to be short now, price can still break out and get nasty for shorts. Longs no problem holding since we are in deep green profits til price action say otherwise.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
If not in best to wait and watch price action first.
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sunny MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
i shorted nas100 at 3360. glad I found you again Mr Sam. I like your market insight and found your links helpful.
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
Thanks Sunny. Be careful shorting during earnings. Price may pop or range. Cheers.
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KevinT
3 years ago
Be carefull. Doji at top channel.

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MarketSwingPlayer PRO KevinT
3 years ago
Yes, I noticed that too. Waiting for price to give me next direction. Still look strong so far green doji, so indecision in play. Price not rejected hard yet.
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Look like shorting opportunity near. Thanks Kevin and Sunny for your help dissecting price action. Cheers. We are right on target. They going to play game going back to the highs imo then boom what!!!!
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The uptrend channel has been broken. Price is changing direction. Seems like a shorting opportunity soon. Let's see
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KevinT MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Agree
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I Love this pattern.
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Bearish Gree, doji, red, down
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sunny MarketSwingPlayer
3 years ago
Hi there. I have a query for you about AUS200 which I'm certain you've never once thought about lol.

On the monthly chart, I can see the price has reached the 61.8 fib level from the 2007 fall -
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On the daily chart, I can see a possible divergence with RSI but I'm not sure -
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What are your thoughts on this please? Thanks!
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MarketSwingPlayer PRO sunny
3 years ago
What stock??? lol What FX :D My thoughts
AUS200 - Direction may change once touch upper channel
Hey hope all is well.
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