harsha.imperial
Long

Bulls Clearly Consolidating, But the March upwards may continue!

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
204 4 7
This Up Trend Pitchfork Channel has been holding since October of 2011, ie since the last 3 years & never been broken. The Fib Levels shown inside the channel have been acting as support & resistance & has proved it's significance.
Until SPY             breaks this channel decisively to the downside , The Bull trend is most likely to continue . As evident , all the negative news , & panic have been very well contained inside the channel & SO it Deserves the Utmost respect.
Only a Break out of this Channel can Lead to a decent correction !
3 weeks ago everyone on this site was extremely bearish - we saw a huge rally! Now, everyone is suddenly bullish, which can only mean...pullback is imminent.
+2 Reply
harsha.imperial JohnKeverich
I completely Agree ! . Just look at the On Balance Volume Indicator on the Daily & Weekly charts , it does not confirm retesting recent highs & on the weekly charts, the same indicator has a negative divergence with price after 3 years .
But that said , This channel has to be broken for any real bear market correction can occur ! Remember this channel very well contained deep sell offs many times in the last 3 years , so we have to be a little more cautious !
Reply
prx JohnKeverich
Given seasonality, will pullback have to wait till Jan/Feb 2015 ?
Reply
No , There have been declines in November & Rallies in December & January , Just look at 2011-12 You can get an idea what can happen this time. I think November is for a nice correction & then Rally in December - Jan .
If it continues without a correction It would be very surprising. I don't think S&P will continue straight up without at least a 100 point correction, given weak market Breadth & weak buying volumes . NO catalyst to fuel an extended rally !
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