optionflow
Short

$SPY - Weekly Chart

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
164 0 4
I see clear distribution on on the weekly chart. Extreme money outflows 34 of 39 weeks confirms. However, there are a couple of scenarios.

Friday, we saw massive SPY             blocks at the $213.10 area in the morning and had overhead blocks at $213.99 and $214.23. This could be some small reaccumulation for a high retest and fail or we just rollover targeting the weekly 10ema and .618 fib retracement.

I've been using SVXY             and DB             as pivots for reversals. Both fill their gaps and smart money flow has been targeting SVXY             March $30P's. SVXY             also completed BOI on the daily chart and is set for mark down.

DB             filled it's gap at $14.36 and had large block trades at gap fill / resistance. I expect this to be catalyst for bearish momentum. VIX             call buyers have been targeting Nov & Dec             17-25 spreads. Trade works when VIX             gets above $25 or stays below $17.

Technically, price bounced off S2 on daily and tagged the .764 retracement. We closed below the 10ema, 20 VWMA , and 50dma with all of the moving averages in a downward trend. However, the weekly closed above it's 20 VWMA .

Along with declining sentiment, I have a hard time being bullish here, but nothing is ever certain.

There is an upside gap at 218.51, which could get filled, so keep an eye on it.
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