seine
Short

SPY - breakdown

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
572 22 7
Please see the notes on the chart. Correction - it is not 50 day MA but 200 MA. Sorry.
Have you found reliability in that kind of rounded volume pattern?
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seine IvanLabrie
I don't know the statistics, but it is strong pattern especially when the size of the round is big, But this is small. So, I expect only a small pullback.
-1 Reply
Interesting, well I do recall reading about it in Thomas Bulkowski's book, but I don't consider it since I mostly trade Forex.
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seine IvanLabrie
yeah, he does calculate the number of times any given pattern works. I believe that the chart patterns work with forex as well. Is that right?
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High tight flags do at least...same as Wolfe waves.
Only ones I look at. Maybe some double/triple bottoms.
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Ca you take yourself serious? this baby is going to new records high.
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seine MartyLS
We can think whatever we want, market will do whatever she wants. A chart is a chart. You may not agree with my opinion. I am not saying this is it, I am saying, this is probable. Only time will tell.
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I think the .382 retracement is also a valid target at 198.
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seine Will Wong
sure it is. that is probably where the 50 MA is.
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The 200 MA would offer pretty major resistance and the long term charts are still bullish. We are dealing with a single news event currently. Any good news on oil or its demand and a huge lift will happen. Price needs to be below the 200 MA and the 200 MA needs to be pointing down, not up for this to be a turn for me IMO. The world is awash with interest free money and money will find its way for the best return.
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paulyberndt PRO paulyberndt
not to say your thesis wont happen but I was just giving the fundamental side of the equation. thanks for your post!
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seine paulyberndt
No, i am glad you shared your opinion. That's the whole point of this platform right? :)
I do agree with that a good news about oil will drive the market up. However, given that no one in the world is willing to cut production, oil can only go to 40.
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Opec is trying to drive the American shale oil production to the ground. Shale oil needs a higher oil price to break even. Saudi's infrastructure is already there. Let's see where this takes us.
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seine Will Wong
True. And this game hurts Russia too. SO there is political stuff too in it.
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correct, many of the highly leveraged drillers of shale will go bust with oil below 70 bucks a barrell, Major banks will feel the squeeze to as cap X by major oil will not be taking loans. Deflation spiral, The SPX for some time was over priced and oil is starting to close this gap
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Will Wong paulyberndt
And in the meantime, we can enjoy driving our Lamborghinis and Ferraris! LOL!
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Tug of war between bears and bulls all day before breaking for the bears in the last hour or so.
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seine Will Wong
Yeap, it was very volatile. But besides the oil sector, other sectors aren't doing so bad actually. There is some noise that is pulling the overall market down. FOMC meeting will set the tone for 2015 tomorrow.
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interesting on think or swims software we are sitting on top of the Darvis box sell area. it busts through that it will be a sell based on Darvis box theory
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paulyberndt PRO paulyberndt
i wish someone on trade view would program the Darvis box
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seine paulyberndt
We can actually inform the admin to design the Darvis box and put it up here. That will be useful.
Thank for sharing.
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now what?
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