n.c_trader
Long

STRZA - Simple and clean uptrend

NASDAQ:STRZA   STARZ
216 5 2
Nice chart.
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huntingsniper
2 years ago
I think it is a bull trap!
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n.c_trader huntingsniper
2 years ago
why?
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huntingsniper
2 years ago
Technically, look at the huge negative divergence in MACD, RSI as well as Stochastic on weekly chart. Fundamentally, its quarterly sale fells 2% while its net income being 17 cents above estimate (kind of phishy) and missed the total revenue consensus.
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n.c_trader huntingsniper
2 years ago
Indicators are constantly giving false signals, and fundamentals never work if the company have projects for the future
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difference of opinion is what makes a market supposedly. All the books written on this stuff it all seems a 50/50 shot either way its looked at. N.c sees a clear uptrend and sniper sees a bull trap looking at the same thing. How does it happen this way. If it is cut and dry as in all the books how is it there are so many opinions on the same thing? One car wreck with 2 witnesses and each a different and conflicting story. Its crazy. I see a nice up trend from end of august to end of October but then i see a sideways $3 range from October to end of January. Then it broke out to make what sniper would likely call a bear trap which would explain how he sees the bull trap made on Friday. Thing is, is if there is really no way to know for a fact whats going to happen next it has to boil down to how we play it. Right or wrong? Let me plant this thought in your mind and see if y'all want to discuss it. Mostly for my own edification because i make no claims to any secrets here. Fact i have beat my head against the wall for years thinking i had it figured out from one day to the next to find out i was lucky and wrong more than anything. Here goes, check out the consolidation of price in mid to late September for about a week price was stuck in roughly a 50 cent range then shot out of there like a rocket to about $30.50 where at end of October it hit in a 50 cent range again. I submit to you that the consolidation in mid to late September is a stack of buy orders somewhere and the consolidation in late October was a stack of sell orders. Notice the return to the lower consolidation price 4 different times before finally falling below it in February. Each time price returned to the consolidation price bounced upward. Except in Feb price finally fell below the consolidation before bouncing. Notice though that back in earlier September and just below the latter September consolidation there is another consolidation that happened. Both of which are stacks of buy orders waiting to get filled.In early Feb the late Sept stack had been all filled and price fell to the lower stack made in early September.

I believe the same thing, just sell orders is what we see at the "Nice resistance" level. The sell orders left behind in late October early November were chewed through the three different days price got to that range in early to mid January. Sooo, when price got there Friday there were not many sell orders left so price rocketed up through the resistance line N.c drew on the chart.

If hind sight was foresight we would all be rich right...LOL So what good was all the above crap i just wrote right? Well if i am even in the ball park in what i presented then there is some information that will point us to what may happen in the future. Let me start with that big daily candle left behind on Friday. If you look at the same thing on like a 30 minute chart you will see that price gaped up considerably from previous close. That would mean there was a considerable quantity of buy orders there at the time and a safe bet is that if price gets back there they will still be some unfilled buy orders to cause a bounce again. A bounce you could profit from. Now looking at a 30m chart again Friday on the open price gaped 50 cents and shot up another buck all in just a single 30 minute candle. After which it spent the remainder of the day in consolidation. The consolidation is the matching of buy and sell orders at that price range. Which stack is bigger buy orders or sell orders? Who knows at the moment? No one but the person or computer that has the orders.

What good does that do us? Well the chart will tell on itself in just a matter of time. Sniper, you should see where im going with this judging by your handle. If we are patient the chart will tip its hand to us and show its cards. Just like it did in all the instances i referred to in the first paragraph and that the chart clearly shows. There is no way for a screen trader to see the real orders but if you are patient one can quite handily figure out where they are at most of the time...i think.

How? Look for significant moves in price such as late September and early November and Friday. Then back track to their origin? Was there a consolidation? If yes then there were some buy or sell orders that didn't get filled and historically each time price returned to that price range there was a bounce. Typically called pivots. Price pivoted for a reason. The reason was left over buy or sell orders. Thing about the new highs is we as screen traders cant see anything yet. But in the case of the consolidation printed on smaller time frame charts Friday if price falls from there it means there were more sell orders than buy orders and of course if price breaks higher there were more buy orders there.

So N.c could very well be correct even if not near term he could be eventually. But on the other hand so could sniper. The unspoken key i think is what we don't see and is not in any of our trading books. Its not fundamentals, its not indicators. There are really three kinds of traders, maybe two. There is us and there are banks/institutions that feed on us (them). Then there is the occasional wealthy individual. Those consolidations are them and their huge orders being filled and everything else is us filling those orders and reacting to the breakouts and i think here lies our mistake. I used to tell my wife i think i would be right nearly every time if i would just turn my charts upside down. I really believed that and i may have been unwittingly correct because statistics say 95% of us are wrong and loose money at this venture. If most of us are wrong then most of them are right. All that stuff in those books and all those opinions...they are right and lucky sometimes but i have read a fortune in books and none of them have ever been any where near consistent and most of their ideas of money management make no since at all. N.c points out a nice resistance line but what about the support line at the bottom of the range. It got broken only to shoot right up through the resistance.

My question is not a challenge by any means. My question is a big fat why??? Why did price bounce back and forth between that support and resistance. The support and resistance is in every book i have ever read and it is useless without the why i argue. Why did Sniper call out a bull trap? Likely because it did the same thing below at support. Again Why my friends? Why did it happen? If we know the why then we can join the 5% of us we never hear about that actually beat the them's.

Anyone care to enlighten me?
thanks for your time gentlemen

“As to methods there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.” Ralph Waldo Emerson
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