WHAT IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST FACTOR THAT I SHOULD KNOW?
To me the answer is simple. Is what I am reviewing "TRENDING" or "RANGE BOUND"?
I need to know if a stock or commodity is trending. Why? RANGE BOUND assets are very hard to make money, long or short.
Let's look at Starwood-Properties.
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company operates through three business segments: Real estate lending (the Lending Segment), which engages primarily in originating, acquiring, financing and managing commercial first mortgages, subordinated mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, commercial mortgage-backed securities, residential mortgage-backed securities, and other real estate and real estate-related debt investments; Real estate investing and servicing (the Investing and Servicing Segment), which includes servicing businesses in the United States and Europe that manage and work out problem assets; an investment business that selectively acquires and manages unrated, investment grade and non-investment grade rated-CMBS, and a mortgage loan business, and Real estate property (the Property Segment), which engages primarily in acquiring and managing equity interests in stabilized commercial real estate properties.
Their track record for growth and strong earning is well documented. Is-STWD TRENDING? Yes. How do I know?
Several things tell me. The buy Fractals. The rising . The rising trend-line. The is feeding in the up trend.
IMPORTANT: to determine the STRENGTH of the trend I use CHOP, (lower indicator below chart). The lower the red line the stronger the trend.
The higher the red line the more likely I will see "choppiness", or range bound trading. (It is harder to make money with lots of chop).
Right now CHOP tells me-STWD has a trend, the trend is strong, and the dashed line is the price trend in CHOP, so the trend will likely remain strong.
The lower the line is below the shaded area, the stronger the trend. For an example, look at the BAC-chart I published three days ago.
Here are the positives for-STWD:
1. Currently a buy .
2. The lower indicator under the chart is CHOP; readings below the shaded area (38.2) indicate a strong trend, it is drifting towards that level.
3. The top lower indicator is phase energy, and this is positive.
4. The is feeding in the uptrend.
5. / (top indicator) is strong.
6. Prices are trading above the .
7. Prices are trading above the thick red conversion line.
8. Prices are trading above the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the and this has been HEADING SHARPLY HIGHER.
In my opinion, STWD-is in a solid uptrend. I hope you establish your own "Rules of Engagement" and stand by them.
One final thought: if you swing trade and look left for structure, an understanding of trend enhances your probabilities of being correct.
Good luck to you. Don.