Volume, Buzz, Big Developments -- That is What to Look 4
Take this with a grain of salt, but it seems like that would probably be the best time to go big if you really wanted to invest in the sector and play off of these potential Biden legislation developments.
I mean, just one look at new cannabis ventures' front page will show you that the sector is still hot, as you can still see all these new deals, buyouts, and equity offerings closing all the time -- lots of activity.
I started following the sector in 2016. That was considered the 2nd wave of investing activity, I believe, following the first wave in 2014, but I`m just going off memory.
Driving the buzz back then was the California legalization vote, which also drove Canadian marijuana stocks into a sharp, high volume bull trend as well.
You saw companies like Aphria, ACB, CGC, Mettrum, and many others beginning to close large private equity offerings in the summer (2016), offerings that increased in size into the 3rd and 4th quarters. The sector then went on to explode in late 2017, 2018, with many of the larger companies buying up land and assets oversees, a practice that brought on allegations of insider dealing.
But looking back, I remember very clearly when the MJ bubble popped, and it was when Session and the Repubs came into office.
Once the bad news dropped, there was still hope, even with the D`s out, that maybe the R`s would eventually come around anyways, but unfortunately that`s not what happened, and Sessions would soon go on to revoke the Cole memorandum. This, of course, crushed sentiment, for how could legalization ever take place with an administration that had taken such a hard line approach to drug legalization reform.
Hence my recent interest in MJ lately. It was MJ legislation delays that broke the bubble--many people at the time expected the D's would legalize, even in 2016 (canada had just legalized in 2015, so with many states already legal, and cali being the 5th largest economy in the world also recently legal, it seemed logical)--and if this is the case, it should be MJ legislation that starts the next bubble. If the next legislation induced bubble is what one is aiming for by investing in MJ, then the best way to catch that bubble seems to be to wait for a MASSIVE increase in volume, social media activity, and, most importantly, key news developments, preferrably in the legislative arena
But, again, as always, take this with a grain of salt! just my cents/opinon!
Cheers
I mean, just one look at new cannabis ventures' front page will show you that the sector is still hot, as you can still see all these new deals, buyouts, and equity offerings closing all the time -- lots of activity.
I started following the sector in 2016. That was considered the 2nd wave of investing activity, I believe, following the first wave in 2014, but I`m just going off memory.
Driving the buzz back then was the California legalization vote, which also drove Canadian marijuana stocks into a sharp, high volume bull trend as well.
You saw companies like Aphria, ACB, CGC, Mettrum, and many others beginning to close large private equity offerings in the summer (2016), offerings that increased in size into the 3rd and 4th quarters. The sector then went on to explode in late 2017, 2018, with many of the larger companies buying up land and assets oversees, a practice that brought on allegations of insider dealing.
But looking back, I remember very clearly when the MJ bubble popped, and it was when Session and the Repubs came into office.
Once the bad news dropped, there was still hope, even with the D`s out, that maybe the R`s would eventually come around anyways, but unfortunately that`s not what happened, and Sessions would soon go on to revoke the Cole memorandum. This, of course, crushed sentiment, for how could legalization ever take place with an administration that had taken such a hard line approach to drug legalization reform.
Hence my recent interest in MJ lately. It was MJ legislation delays that broke the bubble--many people at the time expected the D's would legalize, even in 2016 (canada had just legalized in 2015, so with many states already legal, and cali being the 5th largest economy in the world also recently legal, it seemed logical)--and if this is the case, it should be MJ legislation that starts the next bubble. If the next legislation induced bubble is what one is aiming for by investing in MJ, then the best way to catch that bubble seems to be to wait for a MASSIVE increase in volume, social media activity, and, most importantly, key news developments, preferrably in the legislative arena
But, again, as always, take this with a grain of salt! just my cents/opinon!
Cheers
Some of the risks:
- regime change (Biden, Big Tech Takeover)
- taxes increasing
- QE ending (huge)
- pandemic/trade-war risks (of course)
- SPAC-apocalypse (SPAC's go into bear market after dominating the airwaves in 2020)
- rising debt costs; Zombie corporations add to general stagnation of economic activity -- more statism, economic barriers
But, of course, one can never look at the negatives without at least considering the positives, and lest we never forget: We literally just invented robots that could replace up to 1/4 of human workers (or more, they aren’t saying much). That’s definitely not something to brush off.
Just to put that into perspective, the CEO of Google was quoted as saying that he believed the coming AI/robotics revolution could have a more profound change on human civilization than the invention of fire.
Tech/EV is clearly the new battleground. This should shift the fight from the Middle East to Africa, where all the rare earth and coltan deposits are found. China has already built a base in Djibouti, their first overseas military base to date, if I remember correctly.
You can already see this shift in the market indexes, where tech now dwarfs oil in index weight.
But all that is long long term, and as of now, like right now, conditions seem far too uncertain to be gambling on meme stocks.
But, again, just my two cents, of course.
Cheers