TLT Intraday Action

Feb 8

Interesting action in TLT because of the 30y auction today.

I really should have thought about this last week, puts would have made some money. Anyways, TLT spiked up at 1 pm eastern after the auction, then market priced it back down.

I bailed when it didn't go down at 1pm, made some beer money. Had I shorted the spike I'd have a lot more beer money. Just something to watch out for next auction.

In any case, the auction wasn;t a total failure, so expecting the stock market to keep melting up, especially small caps. CPI data Tues before market open.

Feb 8

Note

The funny thing is, I don't think the Fed will be able to cut rates at all this year because the stock market is going parabolic.

Generally speaking, the Fed only cuts when the economy slows down. I can't recall a time when the Fed cut rates just because inflation got below target. Cutting rates when the market is at all time high and going parabolic would be insanely stupid.

Then again, Powell is the village idiot, so anything can happen.