Xetsu
Short

Bonds going parabolic

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
207 2 2
EDIT: Just read this great article on the current bond market. Talks about how complacent its been and how interest raise will cause pain if complacency continues http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/if-trading-bonds-is-hard-think-about-the-pain-when-rates-rise

TLT             , an etf that tracks the 20 year trsry bounds, are going parabolic. At the same time, TNX             , the yield on ten year bonds is falling drastically.

In this chart I show how I use angled trendlines to showcase parabolas. In this case the first trendline has around a 23 degree angle, which is fairly mild. The second trendline has a 45 degree angle, which shows strong bullish move, but still not nose bleed. The last couple of weeks though the trendline has become a 73 degree angle, and on top of that the Index has gapped up and is looking to GAP up today as well.

At this rate this ETF could hit an 80 degree angle.

In my opinion this ETF is in its final moves, although I would still procede with caution as it looks to begin its last major parabolic leg. Other factors such as strong dollar, weak global yields, massive printing in Japan and Europe continue to make owning U.S. dollars and U.S. treasuries a no brainer, which could lead to this having a couple of months left.
In the most extreme case i could see this etf hitting 160, although i think 148-152 might be more reasonable.

Some fun fact.

TLT             is at an all time high! All time! Normally people go to bonds when things are scary else where, but TLT             is high than it was during the financial crisis and the european soveriegn debt crisis.

TNX             , the amount of yield on ten year bonds, has fallen below the yield of the SP500             and Dow. Usually when this happens it doesn't last very long.

Interest rates: I highly believe the federal funds rate will go up this year, although probably by a nominal amount of .25 to .75%. regardless, this will put pressure on bonds As other central banks continue to lower interest rates.


Overall I think we are in the last innings of a major move in Bonds atm.For all we know this could be part of a much bigger, multi-year move, but for now im just waiting for Things to go really parabolic to around 148-152 area before putting in a short.
Great call
so i suppose linear and log works hand in hand :-)
TLT, from bull to bear
Reply
I don't agree everything you posted on this chart, but you did excellent job showing in terms of degrees the parabolic. Good job.
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
France
España
Italia
Polska
Türkiye
Россия
Brasil
Indonesia
Malaysia
Việt Nam
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Priority Support Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out