andrewunknown

10-Year US Treasury: Breakout on the Brink of Failure?

INDEX:TNX   10-Year Treasury Note
245 24 1
10-Year UST             benchmark yield breaks above its cyclical down trend line ; but hesitating, presumably on Emerging Market rout/Syria safe haven flows. Does the negative divergence present on %B - a highly successful antecedent to major turns on the 10Y with very few exceptions- portend a failed breakout here?
The conversation for bonds, equities and USD-crosses is going to change very, very quickly and with some volatility if the FOMC holds 09/17-09/18. Durables were terrible; pending home sales were materially lower than anticipated; and then there's the matter of the EM/ASEAN massacre underway and the suddenly bellicose geopolitical context. All of that is piling on top of that negative divergence and that breakout. Just need something substantive that is price-based to move me.
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MaxxPayme PRO andrewunknown
all good thoughts - and all according to my evil plans all along...the fog of war was thick for a while, that is why i do NOT listen to MSM - it makes it much easier to clearly think thru the scenarios
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andrewunknown MaxxPayme
I don't subscribe to EMH, but I do believe price efficiently subsumes and recaps the riotously inefficient sentimental calculus of all the fears, foibles misgivings, hubris, greed and irrationality - it's the sum of all the questions - and few to none of the answers - of whatever is in that collective meta-cognitive black box that is the market crowd. But the questions are the market, not the answers - and certainly not narrative dross masquerading as answers offered up by the MSM: so it's enough. Paradoxically, the true inside information is our collective ignorance.
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
Love where your head is man! :)
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
Yeah the noise is killing me - waiting for more confirmation like everyone else...
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
if u wait for the bell to ring u will be left on the sidelines...u need to commit or u will get shaken out like everyone else.
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Not necessarily - there's a bunch of setups out there I'm watching that are far less crowded. I don't mind missing a trade, no big deal. I'm more interested in this trade for its implications elsewhere in the markets. Most of the trades I enter are far too boring to be considered competition or war against an opponent. Just working my little technical edge in the fujiwara and trying to figure out the rest.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
u are missing my point - the long DX and long TLT positions are not trades they are something u can hold and add on weakness to for the next 2 years. If u jump in on strength u will get whipsawed - if u buy lows u will be snug as a bug in a rug. Ur choice tho
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andrewunknown DuncanParker
The macro implications are such that getting this right can have all kinds of salutary knock-on/derivative effects on positions in other instruments asset classes. I can see treating it short and long-term as a kind of litmus or benchmark indicator. Along with USD and JPY crosses round out my area of focus, so what happens here has a defining impact on context, even when I'm not participating outright.
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andrewunknown MaxxPayme
think both of you gentlemen are on the right track by watching this, both as a position trade and as a primary determinant for almost everything else in our markets for the coming weeks and months. Have a decent handle on Maxx's perspective; however you decide to play it Duncan: best of luck to us all!
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