andrewunknown

10-Year US Treasury: Breakout on the Brink of Failure?

INDEX:TNX   10-Year Treasury Note
245 24 1
10-Year UST             benchmark yield breaks above its cyclical down trend line; but hesitating, presumably on Emerging Market rout/Syria safe haven flows. Does the negative divergence present on %B - a highly successful antecedent to major turns on the 10Y with very few exceptions- portend a failed breakout here?
MaxxPayme PRO
3 years ago
u know where this is goin....and it ain't higher
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andrewunknown MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Makes that Long USD thesis look that much more attractive
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
Sarcasm, Andrew? :)
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andrewunknown DuncanParker
3 years ago
Nah - I reserve market snark for those who deserve it: policymakers and pundits, almost to-a-man.
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MaxxPayme PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
dude i am playing the $DX like a fucking maestro - Bonds too - u both are bout to get dunked
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Calm down MP...
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
ok but u were the one trolling this thread and i ain't nobodys punk
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andrewunknown MaxxPayme
3 years ago
I'm being serious! Greenback is hanging on to 81 like a champ - and if the 10Y up TL is recovered/10Y yield down TL is lost again, that's a major green light for incoming capital flows.
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
I wasn't trolling, I was being serious - honest thought for obvious reasons; it's counter intuitive. Thanks AU, I've been out of both of these for a while - no position - but watching pretty closely. Appreciate your thoughts on this, thank you.
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andrewunknown
3 years ago
I like this context for long ZN, long DX (may play it short EUR/USD against 1.34ish rez: we'll see). Base criterion: need TNX to prove it with a failure held below 2.5-2.55% to really get me interested.
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
Boom - that's why you're a rockstar :)
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andrewunknown
3 years ago
The conversation for bonds, equities and USD-crosses is going to change very, very quickly and with some volatility if the FOMC holds 09/17-09/18. Durables were terrible; pending home sales were materially lower than anticipated; and then there's the matter of the EM/ASEAN massacre underway and the suddenly bellicose geopolitical context. All of that is piling on top of that negative divergence and that breakout. Just need something substantive that is price-based to move me.
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MaxxPayme PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
all good thoughts - and all according to my evil plans all along...the fog of war was thick for a while, that is why i do NOT listen to MSM - it makes it much easier to clearly think thru the scenarios
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andrewunknown MaxxPayme
3 years ago
I don't subscribe to EMH, but I do believe price efficiently subsumes and recaps the riotously inefficient sentimental calculus of all the fears, foibles misgivings, hubris, greed and irrationality - it's the sum of all the questions - and few to none of the answers - of whatever is in that collective meta-cognitive black box that is the market crowd. But the questions are the market, not the answers - and certainly not narrative dross masquerading as answers offered up by the MSM: so it's enough. Paradoxically, the true inside information is our collective ignorance.
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
Love where your head is man! :)
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
Yeah the noise is killing me - waiting for more confirmation like everyone else...
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
if u wait for the bell to ring u will be left on the sidelines...u need to commit or u will get shaken out like everyone else.
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Not necessarily - there's a bunch of setups out there I'm watching that are far less crowded. I don't mind missing a trade, no big deal. I'm more interested in this trade for its implications elsewhere in the markets. Most of the trades I enter are far too boring to be considered competition or war against an opponent. Just working my little technical edge in the fujiwara and trying to figure out the rest.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
u are missing my point - the long DX and long TLT positions are not trades they are something u can hold and add on weakness to for the next 2 years. If u jump in on strength u will get whipsawed - if u buy lows u will be snug as a bug in a rug. Ur choice tho
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andrewunknown DuncanParker
3 years ago
The macro implications are such that getting this right can have all kinds of salutary knock-on/derivative effects on positions in other instruments asset classes. I can see treating it short and long-term as a kind of litmus or benchmark indicator. Along with USD and JPY crosses round out my area of focus, so what happens here has a defining impact on context, even when I'm not participating outright.
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andrewunknown MaxxPayme
3 years ago
think both of you gentlemen are on the right track by watching this, both as a position trade and as a primary determinant for almost everything else in our markets for the coming weeks and months. Have a decent handle on Maxx's perspective; however you decide to play it Duncan: best of luck to us all!
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
Cheers to that!
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andrewunknown DuncanParker
3 years ago
Sitting is perhaps the most underappreciated skill - good on you for doing it. ;-)
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DuncanParker PRO andrewunknown
3 years ago
Thanks AU :) True dat, took a lot of tuition to learn that one...
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