10-Year US Treasury: Breakout on the Brink of Failure?

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10-Year UST             benchmark yield breaks above its cyclical down trend line ; but hesitating, presumably on Emerging Market rout/Syria safe haven flows. Does the negative divergence present on %B - a highly successful antecedent to major turns on the 10Y with very few exceptions- portend a failed breakout here?
The conversation for bonds, equities and USD-crosses is going to change very, very quickly and with some volatility if the FOMC holds 09/17-09/18. Durables were terrible; pending home sales were materially lower than anticipated; and then there's the matter of the EM/ASEAN massacre underway and the suddenly bellicose geopolitical context. All of that is piling on top of that negative divergence and that breakout. Just need something substantive that is price-based to move me.
MaxxPayme andrewunknown
all good thoughts - and all according to my evil plans all along...the fog of war was thick for a while, that is why i do NOT listen to MSM - it makes it much easier to clearly think thru the scenarios
andrewunknown MaxxPayme
I don't subscribe to EMH, but I do believe price efficiently subsumes and recaps the riotously inefficient sentimental calculus of all the fears, foibles misgivings, hubris, greed and irrationality - it's the sum of all the questions - and few to none of the answers - of whatever is in that collective meta-cognitive black box that is the market crowd. But the questions are the market, not the answers - and certainly not narrative dross masquerading as answers offered up by the MSM: so it's enough. Paradoxically, the true inside information is our collective ignorance.
DuncanParker andrewunknown
Love where your head is man! :)
DuncanParker andrewunknown
Yeah the noise is killing me - waiting for more confirmation like everyone else...
MaxxPayme DuncanParker
if u wait for the bell to ring u will be left on the sidelines...u need to commit or u will get shaken out like everyone else.
Not necessarily - there's a bunch of setups out there I'm watching that are far less crowded. I don't mind missing a trade, no big deal. I'm more interested in this trade for its implications elsewhere in the markets. Most of the trades I enter are far too boring to be considered competition or war against an opponent. Just working my little technical edge in the fujiwara and trying to figure out the rest.
MaxxPayme DuncanParker
u are missing my point - the long DX and long TLT positions are not trades they are something u can hold and add on weakness to for the next 2 years. If u jump in on strength u will get whipsawed - if u buy lows u will be snug as a bug in a rug. Ur choice tho
andrewunknown DuncanParker
The macro implications are such that getting this right can have all kinds of salutary knock-on/derivative effects on positions in other instruments asset classes. I can see treating it short and long-term as a kind of litmus or benchmark indicator. Along with USD and JPY crosses round out my area of focus, so what happens here has a defining impact on context, even when I'm not participating outright.
andrewunknown MaxxPayme
think both of you gentlemen are on the right track by watching this, both as a position trade and as a primary determinant for almost everything else in our markets for the coming weeks and months. Have a decent handle on Maxx's perspective; however you decide to play it Duncan: best of luck to us all!
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