Bearish Put thesis worst case/ Investing long term buying zones

Elon Musk
Chief Executive Officer
It’s difficult to make an accurate guess at this point. Going back to what I said earlier that the ramp is going to be extremely difficult. And like I said, there’s no way around that. If we just try to do some copycat vehicle design, of which there are literally 200 models that are slight variations on a theme in the combustion engine world, distinctions without a difference, then it’s really not that hard. But if you want to do something radical and innovative and something really special, like the Cybertruck, it is extremely difficult because there’s nothing to copy. You have to invent not just the car, but the way to make the car. So, the more uncharted the territory, the less predictable the outcome. Now, I can say that-- if you say, well, where will things end up? I think we’ll end up with roughly a 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year. I don’t think we’re going to reach that output rate next year. I think we’ll probably reach it sometime in 2025. That’s my best guess.


A recession would also be a major blow to Tesla, as consumers would likely tighten their spending and delay or cancel purchases of new cars. In addition, Tesla is still ramping up production at its new factories in Texas and Germany, and a recession could make it more difficult to meet its production targets

Higher interest rates would make it more expensive for consumers to finance Tesla vehicles. Tesla has relied on strong leasing demand to drive sales growth, but this could be hit hard if interest rates rise significantly.
Tighter financial conditions could make it more difficult for Tesla to raise capital. Tesla has ambitious plans to expand its production capacity and product lineup, but it will need to raise a significant amount of money to do so. If financial conditions tighten, it could be more difficult and expensive for Tesla to borrow money.
A recession would lead to lower demand for Tesla vehicles. Tesla vehicles are still relatively expensive, so consumers are more likely to delay or cancel purchases of a Tesla if they are facing financial difficulties.
A recession could disrupt Tesla's supply chain. Tesla relies on a global network of suppliers for its components. A recession could lead to disruptions in this supply chain, which could make it difficult for Tesla to produce vehicles.
Overall, a combination of QT and recession would be a major challenge for Tesla. The company would need to find ways to reduce costs, increase demand, and secure financing in order to weather the storm.

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Last night, I created a Bearish thesis on Tesla's stock potential price decline, and today it did by 4%, Went under $200. I'm hoping it drops below $180 or even $150. In the short term , I also got $60 Put contracts to protect my portfolio. My plan is simple: keep investing regularly, hold for the long term, and earn some money through those Put options.
This isn’t financial advice DUE DILIGENCE IN ANY INVESTMENT. LEARN BEFORE PUTING MONEY INTO ANY INVESTMENT. RESEARCH.