cryptoyoda
Short

Tesla in downtrend, short opportunity coming up? (again)

BATS:TSLA   TESLA INC
155 4 1
After a long, steep rise* to a market cap well in excess of several carmakers with well-established franchises and less unpredictably flammable technology, TSLA             took a hit when a video of a burning Model S went viral on Youtube. A more recent fall in the stock coincided with an InteractiveBrokers margin hike**.

A downward-sloping pitchfork dating to ~9th Oct now looks confirmed (eg by support at the ML, a zoom through the ML, and finally resistance at the ML***). An entry may present itself within the next few hours: short at 167.5, stop at 171.3 (or just above ML if you like to live dangerously). Of course, if TSLA             makes it back above the ML (~$170) all bets are off...

This is my first 'idea' & I just made it up. So comments welcome & good luck! :)

*context: https://www.tradingview.com/e/E5qSJWeh/
** http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-07/interactive-brokers-just-punkd-microcap-momentum-chasers-hikes-margins-100
*** Seriously - to within a couple of cents until the last bounce, which was lower and could herald the sharp drop. See
snapshot
There's still some life left in TSLA! It gapped through the ML instead of bouncing down - damn, that would have been a nice long - and appears to be finding resistance at the upper quartile. So it looks like the downward fork is 'live'. So is this a new, improved, short opportunity? Or would it pay to wait for a third bounce at the quartile?

Answers on a postcard to: C.Yoda@tradingview.com :)
Reply
Sorry, your first idea failed, but it was good - the resistance on the Median Line is always to be taken into account. As you can see with the benefit of hindsight, price returned to the pink lower parallel or a trendline (the one that was vehemently broken). That's where it finds resistance now. This large "puke bar" was stops triggered of course - such things often recover, because it happened in no time, there was no trading-driven price action. I wouldn't be surprised, if it recovered up to the blue upper parallel or blew through it and went even higher.

And only make sure your stop is above the high not at or below it.
Reply
cryptoyoda ForceFollower
Thanks FF. Better I get stuff wrong than have a lucky streak & decide I've got a crystal ball ;)
Price does seem to be respecting the upper quartile though; maybe the downward fork is still 'live'?
Reply
ForceFollower cryptoyoda
I thought the same. I don't like it banging so much on the quartile, though. It'd better decide soon to go down, or else it will continue upward.
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