Thinking kind of macro as far as "If this were the top....what would I feel comfortable being stuck in ?" I tried an earnings play with a buy/write that didn't do all that well, now that it's pulled back some I would like to take another swipe. I wrote a 20 put and bought the 22.5 call that were approx. 40 delta for 127 days to expiry. Since chips seem to be doing so well I thought the people who make the equipment and tools that chip manufacturers need to make chips would be an idea that could help me when the markets tank and I have to hold for 10 years. I am positioned more short in my other accounts and this market seems in the "exuberance" stage so I am BTD til the market proves it will sell off. Market maker expected move is +/- $4.61. The probability of profit is only 35% which is lower and the strategy has 86 deltas which is almost just a synthetic long stock.
Trade closed manually:
Well, I have watched some marginally profitable trades move from + to - a few times recently (yes I'm talking about you P and AMD) Closed this trade for .65 today for 25% return in 1 day seems conservative. Will keep an eye on UCTT as I have now worked up a full checklist on it and see what the market gives me.