I count 5 waves up in UNG, which implies at least the one higher degree trend is up. One more dip will complete the ABC retracement of the last move up. Any move below 20.84 should be sufficient to complete the pattern, however there are a few likely fibo targets shown, my preferred being 20.70 due to a fibo cluster in that area. Should price bounce from this area without taking out last week's low, a good long trade sets up with a 22.10 initial target.
Things to watch out for:
>price trading higher before hitting downside target. Above 21.20 would cause me to step aside until I understood the pattern.
>new weekly low under 20.50 breaks the proposed pattern as well.
>should price break above 21.36 and 5 subwaves develop on divergent momentum prior to my price target, I would exit the trade at that time.
Things to watch out for:
>price trading higher before hitting downside target. Above 21.20 would cause me to step aside until I understood the pattern.
>new weekly low under 20.50 breaks the proposed pattern as well.
>should price break above 21.36 and 5 subwaves develop on divergent momentum prior to my price target, I would exit the trade at that time.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt